President Donald Trump has surpassed one year in his second presidential term, with a recent survey unveiling a nuanced view of his standing among voters amid evolving economic conditions. While his approval rating experienced a slight rise to 43% in January from 41% in December, the disapproval rating simultaneously climbed to an unprecedented 51%, the highest since the start of this term.
The Emerson College poll canvassed public opinion on a spectrum of issues, including immigration enforcement policies and international geopolitical tensions. Notably, respondents expressed opposition to the use of military action abroad and held unfavorable opinions about Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Nevertheless, overarching economic realities, particularly affordability concerns, appear to exert notable influence on public perceptions of the president.
More than half of those surveyed, amounting to 56%, believe the nation is on an unfavorable course, marking an increase from 48% a year prior. Conversely, only 44% perceive the country as steering in the right direction, a decline from the previous 52%. When reflecting on their personal economic situations, 39% of voters indicated their financial state had deteriorated compared to the previous year. Slightly smaller portions reported their finances as stable (31%) or improved (30%).
The poll additionally revealed that half of the population surveyed is living paycheck-to-paycheck, underscoring ongoing financial strain experienced by a significant portion of Americans. Those confronting such economic pressure are more pessimistic about the country's trajectory; 64% of paycheck-to-paycheck households consider the nation off track, while only 36% maintain a positive outlook. Conversely, individuals identifying as living comfortably show a more balanced perspective, with a narrow majority of 51% satisfied with the country's direction compared to 49% dissatisfied.
These sentiments bear potential consequences for upcoming political contests, including the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race. The elevated disapproval of Trump reported in the poll correlates with a Democratic Party advantage in the generic congressional ballot, standing at 48% for Democrats versus 42% for Republicans. Independent voters demonstrate a clear inclination toward Democratic candidates by a 50% to 28% margin. A gender divide emerges as well, with women favoring Democrats 53% to 38%, and men leaning toward Republicans 47% to 42%.
The survey also gauged voter favorability ratings for prominent political figures, encompassing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and various members of former President Trump’s cabinet. Powell holds the highest net favorability at +18 points, indicating more positive than negative views. Senators Marco Rubio and Scott Bessent exhibit modestly positive net favorability. Other cabinet figures show net unfavorable ratings, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., JD Vance, Kristi Noem, and Pete Hegseth, who all have negative spreads, potentially impacting their political prospects. JD Vance, a potential Republican candidate for 2028, shows a net favorability of negative four, suggesting challenges ahead in garnering widespread support.
The fluctuating approval dynamics occur despite robust performances in financial markets during this period. Major stock market indices, including the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), achieved record highs in 2025, with the ETF appreciating by 15.7% in President Trump's first year of the second term. As of early 2026, the SPY had a year-to-date gain of 0.9%, with shares priced at $688.98. Over the preceding 52-week span, the ETF posted a 13.6% increase.
Addressing the prospects of further market gains at the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump forecasted continued upward momentum in stock prices, speculating the market could potentially double within a relatively short time frame. Nevertheless, these impressive economic indicators have not translated into a commensurate rise in presidential approval. Public sentiment appears more significantly shaped by issues of affordability and international affairs than by stock market performance.
In summary, the polling data reflects a complex interplay between economic perceptions and political approval. While financial markets thrive, the lived economic experiences of many Americans—particularly those struggling with affordability—deliver a counterweight that suppresses presidential favorability. The political ramifications of these trends warrant close attention as midterm and presidential election cycles approach.