Leaders of small and midsize enterprises in the United States are showing considerably increased confidence regarding their companies' outlook for 2026, according to data recently reported by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The findings emerge from the 2026 Business Leaders Outlook: Expectations & Trends survey, which highlights shifting business sentiment amid various economic headwinds.
The survey results indicate that 71% of respondents from the middle market sector conveyed optimism about their companies' future performance next year, a notable rise from the 58% level cited in mid-2025. This jump underscores a growing belief among business leaders that their firms will navigate the upcoming year successfully despite ongoing challenges.
Further analysis of the survey reveals that 73% of middle market executives expect their firms' revenues to increase in 2026. Alongside this revenue growth anticipation, nearly half (48%) of these respondents plan to increase their workforce, signaling expansion intentions and confidence in demand for labor within their organizations.
When asked to identify key concerns for the year ahead, 49% of middle market leaders named economic uncertainty as a primary challenge. Additionally, 33% highlighted concerns related to revenue and sales growth, while a significant 31% pointed to tariffs and labor issues as pressures that could affect their operations.
Among smaller business owners, the outlook appears even more optimistic. The data shows 74% of small firm leaders expect positive developments for their enterprises in 2026. A substantial 76% of these respondents anticipate revenue growth, and a majority of 53% express intentions to expand their workforce in the coming year.
Despite this overall positive business sentiment regarding their own companies, confidence in local economies has declined. The survey documented a decrease from 59% to 44% in favorable views of local economic conditions, a change attributed to evolving policies and challenges specific to various industry sectors.
Tariffs have continued to impact companies over the recent period, with 61% of those surveyed indicating that increased tariffs have raised business costs. Conversely, 30% reported that tariffs did not affect their operations, highlighting a disparity in how businesses experience trade policy consequences.
The increased optimism around business prospects contrasts with more cautious tones expressed previously by larger corporate leaders. In a September 2025 meeting, over 100 CEOs from Fortune 500 companies collectively expressed significant concern about the consequences of economic policies implemented at the federal level. These leaders feared that short-term policy maneuvers might undermine the fundamental U.S. economic system, regardless of their sectors or political affiliations.
While current business leaders show renewed confidence tied to their companies, some economists spotlight caution. Economist David Rosenberg has noted that although headline GDP data remains robust, weakening indicators in industrial activity raise concerns about potential recession risks in the United States, drawing parallels to signs seen before the 2009 financial crisis.
This mixed environment reflects a crucial juncture for middle market and small businesses, as they balance growth ambitions with uncertainty around economic conditions and policy developments.
Key Points:
- Seventy-one percent of middle market business leaders express optimism about their company's prospects for 2026, up from 58% in mid-2025.
- Revenue growth is expected by 73% of middle market respondents, and 48% plan to expand their workforce next year.
- Among small businesses, optimism is even stronger, with 74% positive outlooks and 53% preparing to increase hiring.
- Confidence in local economies has declined significantly, falling to 44% due to policy changes and sector challenges.
Risks and Uncertainties:
- Economic uncertainty remains a major concern, cited by 49% of business leaders as a challenge in 2026.
- Tariffs and labor issues present potential barriers, affecting 31% of middle market respondents.
- Revenue and sales growth worries persist, noted by 33% of the participants.
- Despite growth expectations, industrial data weaknesses fuel recession risk concerns among economists.
Disclosure: This content was developed with the assistance of AI technologies and reviewed by editorial staff prior to publication.