The probability assigned by prediction markets to a U.S. acquisition of Greenland before 2027 has climbed sharply, reflecting an increased expectation of successful annexation efforts spearheaded by President Donald Trump. Marks on the Polygon-based platform, Polymarket, have escalated from 8% at the start of the year to 22%, indicating substantial bettor confidence in the prospect within a relatively short timeframe. This uptick is accompanied by significant monetary activity, with wagers surpassing $14 million, constituting one of the highest volumes on the platform currently.
In parallel, Kalshi, a federally authorized derivatives exchange that facilitates trading on event probabilities, reported a relatively stable assessment since the previous week, estimating the odds of Greenland acquisition at 46%. This divergence between platforms underlines differing market interpretations of political developments surrounding the initiative.
Adding complexity to the scenario, speculation has also risen regarding the imposition of tariffs as a retaliatory or coercive measure by the Trump administration against countries resisting the Greenland plan. On Kalshi, the likelihood of tariffs being imposed on Denmark, Finland, and France in the upcoming month has climbed beyond 30%, signaling market anticipation of increased trade frictions.
Diplomatic resistance remains robust from Greenland's local authorities, who possess extensive self-governing powers within the Kingdom of Denmark. Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has explicitly made it clear that the island would prefer to remain aligned with Denmark rather than transfer sovereignty to the United States. This stance underscores the sovereignty conflict at the core of the acquisition proposal.
European Union representatives have expressed unified opposition to the U.S. maneuvers, with ambassadors reaching a consensus to discourage the application of tariffs by the United States. Furthermore, they are drafting contingency strategies to countermand any such actions if enacted. The member states are also contemplating invocation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, a regulatory mechanism aimed at mitigating undue economic pressure by restricting access for the targeted country to EU public tenders, investments, banking facilities, or service sectors with significant trade surpluses, including digital services.
Industry and geopolitical analysts have evaluated the financial implications of the Greenland initiative, projecting it could require an outlay nearing $1 trillion over the subsequent two decades. Notably, these projections anticipate minimal direct economic returns from the investment. Such cost assessments further complicate the strategic calculus behind the acquisition positioning.