January 23, 2026
Finance

Solar Energy Drives U.S. Electricity Demand Growth Amid Rising Silver Costs

Surge in solar power generation meets most new electricity needs, but escalating silver prices may challenge the sector’s cost structure

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Summary

In 2025, solar energy was responsible for the majority of the increase in U.S. electricity generation, meeting a significant portion of rising demand especially during daytime hours. Regional expansion was led by the South and Midwest, with Texas playing a pivotal role. Despite these gains, escalating silver prices threaten to increase solar module costs, potentially impacting manufacturing economics.

Key Points

In 2025, U.S. electricity demand increased by 135 terawatt-hours, with solar generation accounting for 83 TWh, covering 61% of new demand.
Texas and the Midwest led regional solar output growth, with Texas alone showing the largest absolute increase due to strong demand and new utility-scale projects.
Solar power met all daytime electricity demand growth between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. Eastern, aided by expanding battery storage to address evening demand.
Projected utility-scale solar generation could rise from 290 billion kWh in 2025 to 424 billion kWh by 2027, driven by nearly 70 GW of new capacity, with Texas expected to nearly double solar output.

Data analysis from energy research organization Ember highlights solar power's dominant contribution to meeting the increase in U.S. electricity demand in 2025. During that year, electricity demand across the United States rose by 135 terawatt-hours (TWh), marking a 3.1% increase—the fourth largest growth observed over the past decade. Solar generation accounted for 83 TWh of this increase, expanding by 27% compared to 2024 levels. This surge in solar output fulfilled 61% of all new electricity demand, outpacing all other energy sources.

Dave Jones, Ember's chief analyst, emphasized that solar's growth was critical for addressing the rapid upward trajectory in electricity consumption. He noted that solar power was ideally positioned both to generate electricity where it was needed and, due to a rise in battery storage capacity, increasingly to supply energy when it was demanded during the day and evening.

Regionally, the southern United States made a disproportionate impact on this solar expansion. Texas, in particular, led the charge with the largest absolute increase in solar energy output. This growth reflected a combination of robust energy demand and accelerated deployment of utility-scale solar projects. In both Texas and the broader Midwest, solar energy satisfied 81% of the increase in electricity demand. Meanwhile, in the Mid-Atlantic region, solar managed to cover approximately one-third of the demand growth.

Several substantial solar facilities commenced operations in 2025, contributing significantly to the expansion. Among these were the 153-megawatt Felina Project located in El Paso, Texas; the 150-megawatt Ratts 1 Solar Project in Indiana; and the 145-megawatt Axial Basin Solar Project in Colorado. Federal energy regulatory bodies confirm that factors such as strong solar irradiance, expedited permitting processes, and availability of land resources made these locations favorable for solar development.

Temporal dynamics also played a role in meeting demand patterns. During the daytime hours from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern Time, solar energy generation matched the entire increase in electricity demand. The proliferation of battery storage systems enabled the sector to shift solar-generated power to evening hours, thereby addressing a portion of the demand that extends beyond sunlight periods.

Looking forward, forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook predict a continuing upward trend in electricity generation over the next two years. Solar power is expected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing source of electricity generation. Utility-scale solar production is projected to rise from roughly 290 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to approximately 424 billion kilowatt-hours by 2027, fueled by nearly 70 gigawatts of new capacity slated for commissioning. Texas’s ERCOT market is projected to nearly double its solar generation output, further entrenching its leadership role.

Despite these positive developments, a key risk looms in the form of rising silver prices, which could undermine the economics of solar manufacturing. Spot silver prices have escalated in recent months, reaching an all-time high of $99.36. This surge heightens cost pressures on solar panel producers. Analyst Yali Jiang from BloombergNEF, as reported by market commentary platforms, warns that the jump in silver costs is likely to translate into higher module prices—a challenging prospect after several years of sector-wide margin losses.

Notably, the proportion of silver cost within a solar panel has climbed significantly, constituting over 29% of total panel costs, a steep rise from 3.4% in 2023 and approximately 14% in 2025. In response, manufacturers have sought to economize on silver usage, reducing the amount from around 11 milligrams per watt in 2024 down to about 9 milligrams per watt in 2025. Nevertheless, substitution efforts have to contend with both technical limitations and financial risks.

Gregor Gregersen, founder of Silver Bullion Group, explains that while reducing silver content is desirable, aggressive substitution risks panel failure. Since most panels carry twenty-year warranties but may fail within ten years if not properly manufactured, manufacturers face potential liabilities that discourage drastic changes in silver usage.

In summary, while solar energy continues to lead U.S. electricity demand growth through rapid capacity deployment and effective integration with battery storage, rising silver prices pose a tangible challenge that could affect production costs and future expansion rates. Market performance signals reflect optimism; for instance, the Invesco Solar Energy ETF (NYSE:TAN) has risen 9.98% year-to-date, underscoring investor confidence despite commodity headwinds.

Risks
  • Spot silver prices have reached record highs, increasing from 3.4% of a panel's cost in 2023 to over 29% in recent estimates, raising solar module manufacturing costs.
  • Elevated silver costs may force solar panel prices upward following years of sector losses, challenging profitability and expansion pace.
  • Reducing silver content in panels presents technical and financial risks, as premature panel failures could lead to significant warranty liabilities for manufacturers.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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