In a recent statement made via the social media platform X, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk outlined his expectations for the company's revenue sources in the year 2026, positioning NASA contracts as a diminishing fraction of total income. Musk estimated that NASA would contribute only around 5% of SpaceX's commercial revenue that year, highlighting instead his flagship Starlink satellite internet service as the dominant revenue driver.
Musk addressed this during a response to a social media post that challenged the notion that he would depend primarily on government military contracts to sustain his ventures. While expressing admiration for NASA, Musk candidly acknowledged that the agency is set to represent only a small component of SpaceX's revenue portfolio. "They will only be approximately 5% of SpaceX revenue this year," Musk remarked, before emphasizing that the Starlink commercial satellite system is anticipated to comprise the "vast majority of SpaceX revenue."
Recent figures illustrate SpaceX's growing financial footprint, with reports indicating that the company generated nearly $16 billion in revenue in 2025. A significant portion of this income reportedly stems from its Starlink business, which at times has contributed between 50% and 80% of total revenues. Additionally, SpaceX achieved a profit close to $8 billion in that year. These numbers underscore the critical importance of the Starlink operation to SpaceX's fiscal health.
Previously, Musk had suggested NASA would account for around 7% of the company's overall revenue, highlighting the agency's role in providing competitive contracts. These contracts cover a range of services, including astronaut transport and cargo missions to the International Space Station. However, as SpaceX's commercial ventures scale, NASA's relative share appears poised to decrease.
Looking forward to the current fiscal year, SpaceX's revenue is projected to reach an estimated $24 billion, according to BNN Bloomberg. This projection coincides with significant corporate maneuvers, including SpaceX's announced merger with Musk-backed xAI, plans for a potential initial public offering planned for June, and rumors about a merger with Tesla Inc. If Musk's forecast holds, NASA’s financial contribution would increase modestly in absolute terms, from close to $1 billion in 2025 to approximately $1.2 billion in the present year, despite the smaller revenue percentage.
Concurrently, SpaceX appears to be strategically pivoting its operational focus toward lunar missions. Musk has publicly stated that securing the future of civilization motivates the company's renewed emphasis on the Moon, considering lunar exploration and development faster to realize than his long-discussed Mars colonization plans. This reflects a shift in strategic priorities, targeting near-term milestones in space exploration.
Overall, SpaceX’s financial and operational strategies suggest a growing reliance on commercial satellite ventures such as Starlink, alongside sustained yet proportionally smaller government contracts. The company's endeavors in lunar exploration signal expanded aspirations in human spaceflight and infrastructure. Observers and investors will be keen to monitor SpaceX's upcoming financial disclosures, strategic partnerships, and progress in both the commercial satellite and space exploration arenas.