Strategy Inc’s stock experienced a notable rally, climbing 22% after TD Cowen reconfirmed its target price of $440 per share. The investment bank’s analysts, Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete, maintain confidence in the company’s ability to hold onto its Bitcoin (BTC) assets, emphasizing that no rational scenario currently exists that would compel the firm to liquidate these holdings, even though the cryptocurrency is trading below its purchase cost.
TD Cowen's analysts frame Strategy Inc as a uniquely positioned entity in the cryptocurrency space, characterized by its intentional volatility amplification relative to Bitcoin itself. The company’s common stock is constructed to be approximately 1.5 times more volatile than Bitcoin, which means that its price movements exaggerate Bitcoin’s fluctuations by design. When Bitcoin rises, Strategy’s shares outperform, but conversely they underperform during downturns, which is a feature rather than a flaw.
Despite the challenging market conditions contributing to a 13.4% decline in Strategy’s shares throughout 2026, following a sharp 47.5% drop in 2025, TD Cowen analysts argue that the firm is “better positioned than ever” to capitalize on any future recovery in the digital asset market. They point toward the company’s significant liquidity buffer as a primary factor reducing near-term financial distress risk.
Financially, Strategy Inc holds approximately $2.25 billion in cash reserves, which TD Cowen believes provides sufficient capacity to cover roughly $900 million in fixed charges for an estimated 17 months. This liquidity also supports the servicing of more than $1 billion in convertible notes that the company has that become putable in 2027. According to the analysts, the earliest point where the company might face substantive refinancing risk arises in March 2028 when additional convertible debt instruments mature or become exercisable by noteholders.
TD Cowen’s positive stance on Bitcoin’s medium-term price trajectory further strengthens its optimism about Strategy Inc. The firm projects Bitcoin to reach $177,000 by December 2026 and $226,000 by December 2027, which would enhance the value of the company's Bitcoin treasury and improve overall equity performance.
The investment bank’s outlook aligns with public remarks made by Strategy Inc’s executives during the company’s Q4 earnings call, where CEO Phong Le disclosed that Bitcoin prices would need to decline to approximately $8,000 and remain depressed at that level for five to six years before the company would encounter difficulties in servicing its convertible debt obligations. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor also underscored the resilience of the company’s capital structure, dismissing speculative concerns about emerging technologies such as quantum computing as unfounded negative speculation.
A distinct aspect noted by TD Cowen is Strategy Inc’s creation of what they describe as a “digital credit engine.” In fiscal year 2025, the company raised over $7 billion through preferred equity offerings, accounting for approximately one-third of all preferred equity raised in the United States during that period. The company’s preferred stock, ticker STRC, pays an 11.25% annualized dividend and enjoys strong daily liquidity exceeding $118 million. This preferred equity acts as an alternative funding mechanism beyond traditional convertible debt instruments, adding another layer of financial flexibility.
On the technical analysis front, despite the significant price appreciation on the day, Strategy Inc’s shares continue to face resistance and remain within a descending price channel. Following a bounce from critical support levels in the $100-$110 range, the stock faces immediate resistance at about $155, with subsequent targets around $165 to $175, and then over $200. The SAR (Stop and Reverse) technical indicator stands at $155.29, above current prices, suggesting the prevailing downtrend has not yet reversed. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 36.45 indicates a recovery from prior oversold conditions but remains below the neutral midpoint of 50, implying that bearish momentum is still present.
Support levels below $100-$110 would come into play if the current support is breached, with next major support zones identified between $75 and $85.
In summary, Strategy Inc’s stock price movements and financial disclosures portray a company deliberately structured for amplified Bitcoin exposure. The firm’s substantial cash reserves, prepared capital structure, and alternative equity funding via digital credit seem to provide a broad margin of safety and flexibility amid ongoing market volatility. TD Cowen’s sustained $440 price target and bullish Bitcoin price forecasts underpin a cautiously optimistic medium-term outlook, despite recent challenges and technical indicators indicating continued pressure.