TotalEnergies SE is signaling an optimistic outlook for its oil and gas production in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an expected rise of nearly 5% compared to the same period the previous year. This surge is anticipated to contribute toward a full-year growth rate close to 4%, surpassing the company's earlier guidance of just over 3%. This projection comes amid a backdrop of falling average liquids and gas sales prices, which are expected to decline sequentially in the quarter and align with the sensitivities disclosed by the company.
Despite a reduction in sales prices quarter-over-quarter, TotalEnergies is positioning itself to maintain cash flow stability year over year. The impact of approximately $11 decline per barrel in prices is partially cushioned by production growth, translating into a net effect closer to a $6 per barrel reduction. This dynamic reflects the company's ability to generate accretive production that contributes positively to cash flow.
Segment Developments and Performance Expectations
The company’s Integrated LNG segment anticipates consistent earnings and cash flow in the upcoming quarter. This balance is expected as increased production—attributable to the Ichthys LNG project’s turnaround—and greater sales volumes offset a projected 5% decrease in LNG prices. Similarly, the Integrated Power segment foresees an uplift in cash flow driven by farm-downs in the fourth quarter, elevating the segment’s annual cash flow result beyond $2.5 billion.
Notably, the Refining & Chemicals segment is expected to demonstrate significant margin expansion, with gains exceeding 30%. This boost is anticipated to strongly improve the segment’s overall performance. In comparison, the Marketing & Services segment is projected to maintain steady results with little change compared to previous quarters.
Overall, even in the face of a year-on-year oil price drop exceeding $10 per barrel, TotalEnergies projects that combined cash flow from its diverse business activities will remain on par with the prior year. This forecast underscores the offsetting abilities of upstream production growth and downstream operational improvements.
Capital Allocation and Recent Transactions
Looking ahead, TotalEnergies estimates its net capital investments for 2025 to approximate $17 billion. This figure reflects a balance between substantial investment initiatives and divestments, which are expected to exceed $2 billion in the fourth quarter alone.
Recent corporate activities include the sale of a 50% stake in a 424-megawatt renewable energy portfolio in Greece to Asterion Industrial Partners for approximately 508 million euros ($595 million). In addition, the company’s Nigerian subsidiary, TotalEnergies EP Nigeria, entered a Sale and Purchase Agreement with Vaaris to divest its 10% non-operated interest in the Renaissance joint venture licenses.
Investors will receive further clarity on the company's financial and operational performance with the upcoming release of the fourth-quarter 2025 results, scheduled for February 11.
Market Performance
Shares of TotalEnergies have shown positive momentum, recording a 0.91% increase to $66.84 at the time of the latest trading session. This price places the stock very close to its 52-week high of $67.14, indicating market confidence aligned with the company’s forward-looking statements.