During a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, President Donald Trump proclaimed that the United States is currently receiving an unprecedented quantity of oil from Venezuela, subsequent to a "flawless" military intervention earlier this month that culminated in the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump characterized the operation as one of the most successful attacks ever executed and highlighted the subsequent influx of Venezuelan crude oil as a strategic benefit.
According to Trump, the U.S. is importing "millions and millions of barrels of oil," specifying a figure of 50 million barrels daily. He posited that such an abundant supply would help drive down oil prices further in the American market. In his address, Trump emphasized, "Winning is a good thing," underscoring his administration’s intention to cooperate with Venezuela to "make that country strong again." The president also touted the U.S. economy's historic growth and record-high stock market levels, attributing these developments in part to his tariff policies.
However, the numbers cited by Trump raise questions concerning their plausibility. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that global crude oil production averaged approximately 106.3 million barrels per day in 2025. It appears unlikely that a single producer, particularly Venezuela, could be supplying nearly half of that global output to the United States alone.
The historical production levels of Venezuela's oil industry provide further context. The nation's peak oil production, recorded in the early 2000s, was around 3 million barrels per day. By late 2025, production had diminished significantly to roughly 950,000 barrels per day. These levels conflict starkly with Trump's claim of a 50 million barrel daily supply to the U.S.
Trump’s assertions regarding the volume of Venezuelan oil imports were echoed the previous week when he suggested that Venezuela would transfer between 30 and 50 million barrels in what might be a one-time shipment. He indicated that he would control the proceeds from this oil and that such funds would be used to benefit both the Venezuelan people and the United States.
Despite these statements, experts have voiced skepticism about Trump’s vision for Venezuela and the feasibility of such oil transfers. Notably, economist Paul Krugman commented that the U.S. involvement in Venezuela does not appear to be an "oil war," but rather one based on "oil fantasies." Krugman cited the relatively low current oil prices compared to historical levels and pointed out the high breakeven cost of Venezuela’s heavy crude oil, which exceeds $80 per barrel. He concluded that Trump’s plans for Venezuela’s energy assets are likely unrealistic.
At a White House meeting with President Trump, Darren Woods, the CEO of U.S. energy giant Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), referred to Venezuela as "uninvestable" at present. Woods highlighted the difficulties faced by international companies operating in Venezuela, including prior confiscation of Exxon Mobil’s assets by the Venezuelan government. Despite this, Exxon Mobil’s shares rose 2.02% on Tuesday, closing at $126.54, with continued modest gains in after-hours trading. The stock demonstrates favorable price trends across short, medium, and long terms but scores weakly on momentum and growth metrics according to Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings.
Trump's comments reflect an ambitious agenda to capitalize on Venezuela's oil resources and revitalize the nation's stability while reducing domestic energy prices. Nonetheless, the discrepancy between his claims and industry data alongside expert assessments underscores significant challenges ahead.