Trump Expresses Conditional Support for Iran's Reza Pahlavi Amid Rising Unrest

President Donald Trump conveyed a nuanced position regarding the potential leadership of Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, in an interview on Wednesday, signaling cautious openness to Pahlavi becoming Iran’s leader should the Iranian people endorse him. Trump described Pahlavi as someone who “seems very nice” but also expressed reservations about his effectiveness within Iran’s complex political landscape, emphasizing that the current circumstances had not yet reached a stage for leadership transition. He underscored uncertainty about whether Pahlavi would gain significant acceptance among Iranians but noted that if such acceptance materialized, it “would be fine” with him. Adding a dimension of political support from the United States, Senator Lindsey Graham (R.S.C) reportedly met with Pahlavi and voiced solidarity with the Iranian populace amidst the prevailing unrest. In a public statement on the social media platform X, Pahlavi outlined a reform-oriented vision for a free Iran, which would include dismantling the country's nuclear military apparatus and an immediate cessation of support for terrorist organizations. He further committed to collaborating with regional and international partners to address pressing challenges such as terrorism, organized crime, drug trafficking, and the spread of extremist Islamist ideology. The backdrop to these political developments is a surge of protests within Iran, sparked initially by soaring inflation and the precipitous decline of the rial’s value. These demonstrations have escalated into the most significant anti-government uprising Iran has seen since the 1979 revolution, generating considerable unease in global markets. One direct consequence of the instability has been heightened volatility in oil markets. The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price witnessed a sustained increase, rising for six consecutive sessions and peaking at $62 per barrel on Wednesday. This surge reflects traders’ concerns over the risks of potential supply disruptions linked to the turmoil in Iran, as well as speculation regarding possible military actions by the United States. Subsequent trading showed oil prices easing by 2.84%, standing at $60.25 per barrel at the last check. Amid the tense atmosphere, the U.S. administration has responded with warnings to Iran regarding serious consequences tied to the deaths of protestors. However, Trump's prior statements indicate a relative downplay of Pahlavi’s immediate role in regime change efforts. Reuters has also reported measures by the U.S. to withdraw certain personnel from Middle Eastern bases as a precaution, following Iranian threats of retaliatory strikes should the U.S. engage in military action. The heightened geopolitical risk is reflected in prediction markets, where Polymarket assigns an 81% probability to a U.S. strike on Iran by the end of the current month. Furthermore, the likelihood that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will be removed from power by June 30 stands at 56%, intensifying uncertainty about the continuity and stability of the Islamic Republic. The evolving situation presents complex challenges for regional security and global energy markets, with multiple variables influencing potential outcomes. As Iran’s internal dynamics remain fluid, both policymakers and market participants continue to monitor developments closely. Disclaimer: This article utilized AI-based content assistance tools, with final edits conducted by editorial staff.