President Donald Trump has raised significant concerns regarding Iraq's potential decision to reinstate Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister, emphasizing that such a development could plunge the country back into turmoil and economic hardship. In a statement posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, late on Tuesday, Trump articulated his apprehension about Maliki’s return, reflecting on the tumultuous period during Maliki’s previous terms.
Trump noted, “I'm hearing that the Great Country of Iraq might make a very bad choice by reinstalling Nouri al-Maliki as Prime Minister. Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos.” His message underscored the belief that Maliki’s leadership had been detrimental to Iraq’s stability and prosperity.
Further highlighting the potential consequences, Trump warned that if Maliki were re-elected, the United States would withdraw its support. “Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq and, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom,” Trump stated emphatically.
This intervention comes as Iraq navigates a complex political landscape marked by power struggles and external pressures, especially from Iran. The Shiite Coordination Framework, an influential faction within Iraq’s political milieu, recently endorsed Nouri al-Maliki for the prime ministership. This follows the stepping down of caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who failed to form a government after securing the most seats in the recent November elections.
Maliki's political career is closely entwined with Iraq's Shiite Islamist Dawa Party. Having served as prime minister from 2006 to 2014, Maliki's tenure has been subject to extensive criticism. Detractors argue that his sectarian policies contributed to the deterioration of national unity and indirectly fostered conditions that enabled the rise of the Islamic State extremist group. Critics also highlight his administration’s role in driving the country into prolonged instability.
In parallel with this domestic political debate, U.S. diplomatic sources have conveyed warnings to senior Iraqi leaders regarding the formation of their next government. Specifically, the inclusion of Iran-backed armed groups in the new cabinet could invoke punitive measures from the United States. These could extend to sanctions or even restrictions on Iraq’s vital oil revenue streams, which are essential for its economy and governmental functioning.
Compounding Iraq’s challenges are the ongoing events in neighboring Iran, which continues to experience widespread protests. Citizens are voicing demands for improved living standards and an end to systemic corruption. Intelligence briefings received by Trump reportedly indicate that Iran's current ruling establishment is enduring its most severe internal pressures since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, signaling a period of significant vulnerability for the Iranian regime.
Taken together, these developments paint a complex picture of regional instability, with Iraq’s political future intricately linked to both internal factional dynamics and broader geopolitical pressures. Trump's explicit warning highlights the precarious balance Iraq faces between securing continued Western support and managing influences from regional actors such as Iran.
While the full implications of Iraq’s pending political decisions remain to be seen, the United States’ stance, as expressed by President Trump, signals potential shifts in foreign policy that could have a material impact on Iraq’s stability, economic prospects, and governance going forward.