In a confidential disclosure, President Donald Trump revealed that he has made a decision regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair but has yet to disclose the identity publicly or share it with others. His reticence has sparked speculation about the direction of U.S. monetary policy under new leadership, especially as the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term approaches its end in May.
During an interview conducted on Wednesday evening, Trump refused to name his pick. When pressed about National Economic Council Chairman Kevin Hassett — a figure considered a strong candidate — Trump neither confirmed nor denied but expressed a favorable view, describing Hassett as "certainly one of the people that I like." This ambiguous position leaves the decision shrouded in uncertainty.
Meanwhile, prediction markets operated by Kalshi have reflected this uncertainty, placing Kevin Warsh as the frontrunner with 41% probability, closely followed by Kevin Hassett at 39%, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller at 12%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump's nomination is expected in January, further narrowing the timeframe for formal announcement.
The importance of this nomination is underscored by its immediate policy implication; Trump demands that whoever assumes the Fed Chair role should implement rate cuts without delay, making the selection a deciding factor in shaping monetary policy strategy for 2026.
Calls for Accelerated Rate Reductions
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly advocated for easier monetary policy, emphasizing the necessity of interest rate cuts to bolster economic expansion. In a speech before the Economic Club of Minnesota, he stated that cutting rates was "the only ingredient missing" for achieving stronger growth, urging the Federal Reserve not to hesitate.
However, a draft version of this address initially featuring the call for rate cuts was subsequently revised, and the final text only implored the Fed to "do its part to spur investment," reflecting a more cautious stance or internal deliberation on messaging.
Bessent referenced historical Federal Reserve conduct under former Chairman Alan Greenspan, noting Greenspan's reluctance to prematurely hike rates during the technological boom of the 1990s, suggesting the Fed should remain patient and open-minded about the timing of policy adjustments.
In late 2025, the Federal Reserve executed three consecutive rate cuts, totaling a 0.75 percentage point reduction, bringing the policy rate down to 3.5%–3.75%. Looking ahead, the pace of further decreases is anticipated to slow significantly throughout 2026.
Market Expectations and Fed Projections Diverge
Market sentiment seems to diverge from the administration's eagerness for aggressive rate cuts. Presently, markets have priced in approximately two rate reductions for 2026, whereas the latest authoritative projections from Federal Reserve officials suggest only a single cut.
Data from Polymarket quantify these probabilities: a 27% chance of two cuts by 25 basis points each, a 22% possibility of three cuts, and only a 17% likelihood of four rate decreases. This divergence points to differing interpretations of economic conditions and policy priorities.
The potential tension lies in balancing the benefits of lower rates—which could ease pressure on a decelerating labor market—against the risks of rekindling inflationary pressures.
Federal Reserve Voices on Rate Policy
Adding to the policy debate, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran expressed in a Bloomberg Television interview a preference for cutting rates by 150 basis points during the current year to invigorate the labor market. Highlighting that core inflation hovers at 2.3%, slightly above the Fed's target of 2%, he argued this level permits substantial employment gains without triggering excessive inflation.
Miran's tenure concludes at the end of January, making the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting a likely final occasion for his direct policy influence. Given this timeline, the incoming Fed Chair, appointed by Trump, will likely occupy Miran's vacated seat, further shaping the central bank's direction.
Implications for Financial Markets
The Fed Chair selection emerges as a critical determinant of monetary policy aggressiveness. A Chair inclined toward dovish strategies with multiple rate cuts could maintain accommodative liquidity conditions, potentially depressing the U.S. dollar and bolstering risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, exemplified by Bitcoin.
Candidate positions appear split on policy stance: Kevin Hassett advocates for more room to lower rates, while Kevin Warsh reportedly holds a more hawkish perspective focused on controlling inflation.
As investors await nomination confirmation, the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's path contributes to market volatility and strategic recalculation, especially in sectors sensitive to interest rate dynamics.