Bitcoin (BTC) recently surpassed its 50-day moving average, an event often interpreted as a sign of strengthening short-term market momentum. This price movement is occurring within a wider context of improving macroeconomic sentiment and potential geopolitical developments related to Venezuela, which analysts suggest could influence global oil supply and, consequently, energy prices.
On Monday, CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos highlighted that traders are increasingly optimistic due to prospects of political changes in Venezuela leading to an increase in oil output. The expected heightened oil supply is anticipated to exert downward pressure on energy prices, which might, in turn, ease inflationary pressures globally. Since inflation trends are closely watched by markets, lower inflation could encourage investment in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
This optimism has translated into a risk-on rally within the crypto market, with Bitcoin reclaiming its 50-day moving average following a weekend surge that triggered significant short liquidations. Short liquidation occurs when traders betting against an asset are forced to buy back positions, amplifying upward price movements. Nevertheless, caution remains. Trader Altcoin Sherpa pointed out that Bitcoin’s daily exponential moving averages (EMAs) are not as tightly compressed as they were prior to the substantial breakouts seen in October 2024 and April 2025. This lack of compression implies that the market may not yet be "coiled" or primed for a major upward move, indicating that while momentum is improving, a decisive breakout may still be pending.
The situation in Venezuela adds a distinctive layer to this analysis. The South American country has a prolonged history of cryptocurrency usage. Historically, due to hyperinflation, Venezuelan citizens have turned to digital currencies as a store of value and a means of financial stability. Additionally, it has been reported that the Venezuelan government has used stablecoins like USDT and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin to circumvent sanctions, embedding digital assets into the country’s financial ecosystem.
This dual role of cryptocurrencies in the Venezuelan economy raises pertinent questions about the future influence of the country on key digital assets. If the Bitcoin reserves possibly held by Venezuelan entities remain largely illiquid, this could exert structural bullish pressure on Bitcoin’s market dynamics. These reserves are estimated to be substantial, with some intelligence sources suggesting Venezuela controls a Bitcoin shadow reserve of up to 600,000 BTC. This magnitude of holdings, if retained from active market participation, could limit supply and support price levels.
Moreover, the potential tailwind is not limited to Bitcoin alone. Cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP have also experienced gains amid the strengthening risk appetite within the market. XRP, in particular, has displayed outsized gains relative to other altcoins, indicating strong investor interest. The broad participation across a diverse set of cryptocurrencies reinforces the characterization of the current environment as risk-on, signaling that market participants are increasingly willing to embrace investment positions with higher volatility and potential reward.
Market data underpinning these observations include Bitcoin’s trading price near $94,265, Ethereum approaching $3,296, Solana above $142, and XRP around $2.39. These valuations correspond with daily percentage increases across these assets, reflecting the buying momentum described.
Looking ahead, market participants should consider both the opportunities and uncertainties inherent in the current landscape. While improving macro sentiment and geopolitical developments provide potential catalysts for sustained gains in cryptocurrency markets, indicators suggest caution as technical setups do not yet confirm a large breakout. The influence of Venezuela’s crypto reserves, while potentially supportive, also adds an element of unpredictability given the uncertainty regarding the liquidity of these holdings.