San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings, providing the first comprehensive evaluation of the bank's strategy in the wake of the Federal Reserve's removal of its asset cap. This marked a substantial turning point for Wells Fargo, which has been restrained by regulatory limits on its balance sheet growth since 2018, following a series of customer-related scandals.
The asset cap, which had effectively restricted the bank's total assets to a ceiling of $1.95 trillion, was lifted in June 2025. With this regulatory barrier now eliminated, Wells Fargo can pursue organic growth through expanding deposits and increasing its loan portfolio—initiatives that were previously curtailed for several years. Although the current quarter is only the second since the cap's removal, it represents the first full-scale test of the bank’s operational and financial strategies in this new regulatory environment.
During the third-quarter earnings call held three months prior, management provided guidance that underscores their focus on strengthening profitability and capital efficiency. Specifically, they projected an aggressive increase in return on tangible common equity (ROTCE), targeting a range between 17% and 18%, a significant step up from the 15.2% recorded in the third quarter. This objective signals management's commitment to improving shareholder returns as a core component of its growth narrative.
Complementing this is an adjustment in the bank’s capital framework. Wells Fargo announced a lower common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio target, setting it between 10.0% and 10.5%, down from a previous target of 11%. This shift manifests a more assertive stance on capital deployment, enabling the bank to leverage its expanded balance sheet more effectively while maintaining stringent cost discipline and credit standards integral to its years-long turnaround efforts.
CEO Charles Scharf emphasized the renewed momentum during the prior earnings call, highlighting that "we are now beginning to use this increased capacity and have started to grow our balance sheet." He noted that the bank's total assets had reached $2 trillion at the end of the third quarter, marking an unprecedented milestone in Wells Fargo’s history.
Equity analysts have responded positively to these developments. Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America Securities reaffirmed a "Buy" recommendation on Wells Fargo's stock, elevating the price target from $100 to $107. This revised price target implies an upside potential of approximately 14.36% relative to prevailing market prices.
Poonawala’s bullish stance is founded on the thesis that Wells Fargo remains a compelling long-term turnaround candidate, fueled by several growth catalysts including its targeted ROTCE in the high teens. Additionally, the analyst projects earnings per share of $7.07 for fiscal year 2026 and $8.21 for fiscal year 2027, suggesting a solid earnings growth rate near 15% year-over-year.
From a valuation perspective, Wells Fargo is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 13.59 times, substantially lower than the S&P 500's multiple of 28.09 and also below the financial sector ETF XLF's 18.66 multiple. Such valuation differentials may reflect residual investor caution despite the bank’s upward trajectory.
The stock’s recent market performance has been modestly soft, closing at $93.56 on the prior trading day, down 1.47%, with minimal change overnight. However, technical momentum indicators remain favorable across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, as evidenced in Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings where Wells Fargo scores prominently in momentum metrics. These data points could suggest an underlying positive trend in the stock's price behavior despite recent dips.
Analysts and stakeholders alike will scrutinize the upcoming earnings disclosure as the key indicator of whether Wells Fargo can effectively harness its lifted asset cap to reignite growth and improve profitability. The extent to which the bank can convert its expanded operational capacity into enhanced earnings and return metrics will be critical in validating its strategic turnaround narrative and investment thesis.