Thursday's trading session for XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed an unprecedented withdrawal of funds, totaling $93 million in net redemptions. This resulted in XRP's price diminishing to approximately $1.80 by Friday morning, underscoring the negative market sentiment towards the digital asset.
The dominant contributor to this outflow was Grayscale's XRP Trust (GXRP), which alone experienced $98.39 million in redemptions. This significant withdrawal eclipsed the comparatively minor inflows posted by other XRP-focused funds, including Canary's XRPC with $2.10 million and Bitwise's XRP ETF adding $2.41 million in daily inflows. Despite these small gains, the net effect heavily skewed towards outflows.
Market activity remained elevated as XRP spot ETFs reached a total trading volume of $71.48 million, demonstrating active participation amid growing uncertainty. Consequently, aggregate assets under management for XRP spot ETFs contracted sharply from $1.39 billion in the previous session to $1.21 billion, marking a substantial single-day reduction of $180 million.
The price dynamics of XRP reflect escalating selling pressure. The cryptocurrency declined by 3%, accompanied by bearish momentum evident across all analyzed timeframes. Technical indicators depict XRP trading below all its key exponential moving averages (EMAs), arranged in a classic bearish configuration:
- 20-day EMA positioned at approximately $1.93
- 50-day EMA at around $2.00
- 100-day EMA near $2.13
- 200-day EMA at roughly $2.27
The expanding distance between XRP's current trading price and these moving averages reinforces the dominance of sellers in the market. Further bolstering this downtrend, the Supertrend indicator, which flipped bearish at $2.04, remains well above the prevailing price, affirming that the negative momentum is intact.
One critical technical juncture approaching is the support level at approximately $1.7652. This horizontal support has historically provided a floor for XRP price during multiple previous episodes. At present, XRP trades precariously close to testing this support line.
Should XRP breach below $1.7652, a more pronounced selloff could be catalyzed, potentially driving the price down toward the $1.40 to $1.60 range. This zone is notable for lacking significant structural support, which could facilitate steeper declines if the support falters.
On the resistance side, XRP faces immediate barriers at the former trendline between $1.90 and $1.95, followed closely by the 20-day EMA at $1.93. For the digital asset to mount a meaningful recovery, a reclaiming of the $2 mark along with surpassing the 50-day EMA is essential. However, prevailing market dynamics suggest such a rebound may be unlikely in the near term.
The pressures on XRP are accentuated by broader cryptocurrency market trends. Bitcoin (BTC), often a bellwether for the sector, dropped to an early Friday trading price near $81,100. This represented its lowest level in nine months and a 34% decline from its October peak of $126,080. Compounding sector-wide selling, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $817.9 million in outflows on Wednesday, marking their highest daily withdrawal volume since the previous November.
Wider market sentiment is further influenced by geopolitical developments. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization contracted by approximately $200 billion within a 24-hour period, driven by investors’ rotation toward safer assets amid escalating tensions. Notably, recent geopolitical actions include a national emergency declaration by former President Trump targeting countries supplying oil to Cuba, coupled with increased U.S. naval deployments in the Middle East as tensions with Iran intensified.
In this challenging environment, XRP and its associated ETFs confront significant headwinds amid heightened market volatility, declining prices, and large-scale fund withdrawals. Continuous monitoring of technical levels and broader market factors remains essential for assessing XRP's near-term trajectory.