Over the past 24 hours, XRP has climbed approximately 3%, reflecting optimism fueled by three converging factors that could instigate a pronounced rally. The cryptocurrency aims to rebound toward its July peak close to $3.65, indicating a potential price increase near 70% from current levels.
Regulatory Milestone: Ripple’s EU Payment Institution License
Ripple has attained preliminary approval from Luxembourg's Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) to operate as a licensed payment company across the European Union's 27 member countries. The issuance of a "green light letter" on Tuesday authorizes Ripple to continue pursuing full licensing to provide payment services within this region.
This development is highly significant as it authorizes Ripple to facilitate payment services using XRP and stablecoins for banking and financial institutions throughout the EU. Previously, Ripple had secured comparable authorization in the United Kingdom last year, thereby securing operational legitimacy in two major European financial markets.
To date, Ripple has successfully processed payment volumes exceeding $95 billion and holds over 75 licenses in various jurisdictions globally. The EU license considerably broadens access to a substantial marketplace, allowing traditional banks to integrate Ripple’s blockchain infrastructure for payments without encountering regulatory uncertainties.
Monica Long, Ripple’s President, emphasized the importance of the EU’s early adoption of clear cryptocurrency regulations, noting that such definitional clarity enables banks to move from mere pilot blockchain projects to widespread operational use.
Legislative Proposal: Senate Banking Committee Draft Bill Confers Commodity Status
On Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee unveiled a draft bill proposing to categorize XRP as a commodity, aligning its regulatory treatment with Bitcoin. The draft stipulates that tokens are "non-ancillary assets" if they served as the principal asset in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) listed on a national securities exchange as of January 1.
XRP satisfies this criterion due to the existence of ETFs currently trading on major U.S. exchanges. As a result, the cryptocurrency would be exempt from Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) securities laws and associated disclosure requirements applicable to other digital assets.
The committee planned to vote on this draft bill on the Thursday following its release. Should the legislation pass, it would eliminate the prolonged regulatory uncertainty that has burdened XRP, potentially unlocking increased institutional adoption by removing the threat of SEC enforcement actions.
Market Signal: ETF Inflows Indicate Institutional Accumulation Amid Price Weakness
XRP spot ETFs attracted $12.98 million in inflows on Tuesday alone, contributing to cumulative ETF inflows reaching roughly $1.25 billion. Total net assets under management by XRP ETFs have grown to approximately $1.54 billion, representing 1.19% of XRP’s entire market capitalization.
Notably, these sizable ETF inflows occurred while XRP’s price hovered around the $2 to $2.20 range, signaling that institutional investors have been accumulating XRP during recent price softness instead of reacting negatively.
Price Dynamics and Technical Outlook
Since its peak of $3.65 in July, XRP has experienced a 41% decline, bottoming at approximately $1.80 in December. Since then, it has been consolidating within a relatively narrow trading range between $2 and $2.50.
Last week, an attempt to break above $2.50 momentarily succeeded but was subsequently rejected. That $2.50 level is now a critical juncture; a sustained move beyond this point could suggest an end to the downtrend and pave the way for testing higher resistance near $2.70 to $2.80, eventually targeting the $3 mark.
The pathway is straightforward from a technical perspective: surpassing $2.50 opens a rapid route to $3.20 to $3.40, which would represent a 50% to 60% increase from current values. Continuing toward the July high of $3.65 would imply a rally of around 70%.
Conversely, key support is found near $2.06. Should the price fall below $2, it would undermine the current structure and might lead to tests of $1.90 to $1.95 and potentially the December lows of $1.80.
Summary
XRP's recent price movements are underpinned by multifaceted developments, including regulatory advances in Europe, favorable potential U.S. legislation, and substantial institutional accumulation through ETFs. The convergence of these factors supports the case for a meaningful price rebound, provided technical resistance levels are overcome and structural supports hold.