Trade Ideas
Actionable trade ideas with entry/stop/target and risk framing.
SMCI: The Misunderstood AI Server Trade — Buy the Revenue Wave, Manage the Working-Capital Risk
Post-earnings momentum hides a straightforward story: huge AI demand, volatile margins, and a cash-profile that needs watching.
Super Micro (SMCI) just reported a blowout top-line print and an EPS beat, yet the market is fixated on shrinking gross margins and an inventory build...
First Financial (FFBC) - Clean Fundamentals, Cheap Multiple, Dividends and a Clear Trade Setup
A regional bank with improving earnings, strong capitalization and a 3%-plus yield - tactical long with defined stops and targets.
First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) looks like a pragmatic long: consistent quarterly profits, a well-capitalized balance sheet, a rising quarterly dividen...
Buying the Dip in Mercury Systems: A Tactical Long with Clear Entry, Stops and Targets
After a brutal 25% sell-off, fundamentals point to a rebound — this is a defined-risk trade, not a blind value bet.
Mercury Systems (MRCY) plunged roughly 25% on 02/04/2026 despite an earnings beat on 02/03/2026. The beat exposed improving top-line momentum and the ...
TTD Tactical Short: Why The Trade Desk Looks Like a High-Risk Short at $27
Cut your exposure or lean short—management turnover, slowing demand and an expensive multiple create a tactical short opportunity.
The Trade Desk (TTD) has solid cash flow and profitability, but recent leadership turmoil, a 2025 share-price collapse and signs that growth is decele...
Meta's AI Revenue Engine Is Outpacing Peers - Tactical Long with Defined Risk
Q4 beats and high operating leverage make Meta the cleaner AI monetization play versus enterprise-first peers.
Meta reported a fourth-quarter revenue and EPS beat, and its advertising business shows margin resilience while AI features drive engagement lift. Wit...
Buy the Dip in UnitedHealth - High-Quality Cash Flow + Optum Optionality Make This a Tactical Long
Temporary Medicare and guidance noise opened a reasonable entry; scale in with a clear stop and layered targets.
UnitedHealth's pullback in late January created a structured buying opportunity. The company still produces strong operating cash flow (Q3 2025 operat...
TrustCo (TRST) - Repricing Tailwind + 10%+ Buyback Makes a Tactical Long
Mortgage book reprice is boosting NII; management just cleared a 2.0M-share repurchase that meaningfully reduces float - trade this as a position trade with a defined entry, stops and targets.
TrustCo Bank (TRST) is benefiting from mortgage repricing into a higher-rate environment and has announced a two-million-share repurchase (~10.6% of o...
Zeta Global: AI Data Moat + Improving Margins — Upgrade to Long
Revenue and operating income are finally turning; a pragmatic swing trade with asymmetric upside if growth and cash flow continue.
Zeta Global (ZETA) has moved from heavy losses toward operating profitability while showing accelerating cash flow and double-digit revenue growth. At...
Medifast: A Classic Net-Net Setup — Negative Enterprise Value, Asymmetric Upside
Balance sheet > market value. Small operational recovery could re-rate a beaten-down stock.
Medifast (MED) trades at roughly $11 with an implied market cap near $121m while sitting on $173m cash and minimal long-term liabilities. Using conser...
Adobe: A Blue-Chip Buy After the Software Drawdown — Tactical Long With Defined Stops
Strong free cash flow, modest net debt and recurring revenue — the market has priced in too much downside, in my view.
Adobe (ADBE) has been beaten down with the broader software complex despite continuing revenue and profit strength. With quarterly revenue near $6.0B,...
HCI Group: Cheap Income Play with an IPO Optionality - Buy the Stock, Keep the Upside
Underwriting profits, a clean balance sheet and an Exzeo IPO make HCI an asymmetric long at current levels
HCI Group (HCI) trades at an attractive multiple vs. its recent profitability, offers a reliable $0.40 quarterly dividend and carries optional upside ...
Misunderstood AI Fintech: A Tactical Long on Pagaya (PGY)
Improving margins, cash flow and a compressed multiple create an asymmetric risk-reward — tactical entry, stop and targets included.
Pagaya's recent quarters show a clear operating inflection: sequential revenue growth, expanding gross and operating margins, and rising operating cas...