Hook / immediate thesis
Palantir is easier to like on the numbers today than it was a few years ago. The company is growing revenue quickly, generating very healthy gross margins, and converting that operating leverage into profit and free cash flow. Q3 2025 (ended 09/30/2025) was a reminder: revenue of $1.181 billion (+62.8% year-over-year), gross profit of $973.8 million and an operating income of $393.3 million. Those are the mechanics of elite software economics translating into real profits.
But the market is already assigning Palantir a very high valuation. Using the most recent trade (about $160.78) and diluted shares reported for Q3 2025 (2.571 billion), a simple market-cap estimate is roughly $413 billion. That implies P/E multiples in the 200x+ territory on a simple annualization. So this is not a valuation-free call: it is a trade that requires conviction on continued 50%+ top-line growth and margin durability, paired with strict risk controls.
What Palantir does and why it matters
Palantir sells two core enterprise platforms: Gotham (government) and Foundry (commercial). The product is not point software; it is an operational analytics platform that sits on top of customers' data and becomes more valuable as it absorbs more use cases. That stickiness matters for pricing power: Foundry and Gotham are positioned as mission-critical tools for intelligence, defense, and enterprise AI workflows. The company also restricts work to Western-allied nations, which reduces geopolitical risk in some partnerships and increases corporate trust for regulated customers.
Why the market should care: Palantir is demonstrating the rare combo of rapid growth and margin expansion. High gross margins (Q3 2025 gross margin ~82%) and sizable operating profits are what separate a fast-growing software winner from a fast-growing but cash-burning story. For enterprises and governments that are investing in AI and data infrastructure, Palantir is in an advantaged spot to capture incremental spend across multiple initiatives.
Support from the numbers
- Revenue acceleration - Q3 2025 revenue: $1,181,092,000 vs Q3 2024 $725,516,000 (+62.8% YoY). QoQ the company went from $883.9M (Q1 2025) to $1,003.7M (Q2 2025) to $1,181.1M (Q3 2025), showing sequential acceleration.
- Margins and profitability - Q3 2025 gross profit $973.8M implies roughly 82% gross margin. Operating income was $393.3M (operating margin ~33%). Net income for Q3 2025 was $476.7M and diluted EPS was $0.18 for the quarter.
- Cash flow and balance sheet - Net cash flow from operating activities in Q3 2025 was $507.7M. The balance sheet shows current assets of $7.586B vs current liabilities ~$1.180B and total equity ~$6.688B; Palantir is cash-rich and not balance-sheet constrained.
- Profitability run-rate (simple annualization) - Annualizing Q3 2025 net income (476.7M x 4) gives ~$1.907B; using diluted average shares (2.571B) with the last trade price (~$160.78) implies a market cap roughly $413B and a simple P/E near ~217x on annualized net income (or ~223x using annualized diluted EPS of $0.72). Those multiples are expensive and price in a lot of future growth.
Valuation framing - what you're paying for
There are two competing facts investors must reconcile: Palantir's unit economics are elite for a growth software company (very high gross margins and positive operating leverage) and it's growing fast (60%+ YoY in the most recent quarter). The market is treating the business like a deeply scalable AI platform with a path to very large addressable spending across commercial and government markets — hence the premium multiple.
Important caveats: the ~$413B market-cap figure above is a straightforward estimate (price x diluted shares) and doesn’t parse the company’s exact cash and investment mix. It also uses a simple annualization rather than a full trailing twelve-month calculation because not all quarterly windows are directly aligned. Use it as a sensitivity anchor: at today’s prices you are paying >200x annualized earnings for high growth and cash generation. The valuation can work only if growth stays high and multiples compress slowly.
Trade idea - actionable plan
This is a high-risk, high-upside trade: size accordingly (I recommend 1-3% of portfolio as a base, smaller if you are risk-averse).
| Action | Level (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Primary entry | 150 - 165 | Buy weakness inside this band. Current trade price ~160.78 (as of 01/28/2026). Scale in rather than all-in. |
| Stop-loss | 125 | Hard stop below major support and recent trading ranges (~22% below current). Tighten stops if fundamentals deteriorate. |
| Target 1 (near-term) | 220 | ~35% upside. Reflects multiple normalization to ~120-140x on solid continuation of growth and positive earnings surprises. |
| Target 2 (medium) | 300 | ~86% upside. Requires continued acceleration and multiple expansion from both AI narrative and enterprise adoption. |
| Time horizon | 6-12 months (position) | Expect volatility around earnings (02/02/2026) and news flow; be prepared to watch catalysts closely. |
Catalysts to watch
- Upcoming quarterly report and management commentary - market attention around the Q4 / full-year cadence (earnings date referenced in market commentary around 02/02/2026).
- Commercial adoption of AI Platform features and expansion within large customers - sustained >50% YoY commercial revenue growth would justify a higher multiple.
- Margin expansion and continued free cash flow generation - incremental operating leverage beyond the recent quarter would materially improve the risk/reward.
- Large government contract renewals or new multi-year deals that lock in revenue visibility.
Risks and counterarguments
- Rich valuation - The stock already prices in near-perfect execution. If revenue growth decelerates from current >60% YoY, multiples can compress materially. This is the single largest risk to the long case.
- Concentration and political/regulatory risk - Dependence on government customers (Gotham) and the public nature of Palantir's work raise geopolitical and procurement risks. Contract shifts or political pushback could dent revenues or renewals.
- Execution on commercial expansion - The commercial market is larger but more competitive. Palantir must turn product-led adoption into consistent multi-year contracts across more customers. Failure to scale sales motions would slow growth.
- Multiple compression - Even with strong growth, macro risk or a rotation away from expensive growth names can compress prices quickly; technical volatility has been significant historically.
- Event risk around earnings - Short-term volatility around the next earnings release (early February) could create sharp drawdowns if guidance or commentary disappoints relative to market expectations.
Counterargument to the bullish thesis: You can reasonably argue that the market is right to demand a high premium. Palantir's growth, while impressive, may be cyclical with large customers (particularly in government) able to toggle spend. If AI-driven budgets stall or competitors deliver simpler, cheaper offerings, Palantir could still be forced into discounting or slower enterprise penetration. That outcome would likely leave multiples far lower than today's price implies.
What would change my mind
- I would reduce the target and move to neutral if year-over-year revenue growth drops below 30% on a sustained basis and operating margins start to revert toward low double-digits.
- I would increase conviction (and weight) if Palantir reports a string of large commercial account expansions, durable multi-year contract disclosures, and evidence of sustained >40%+ free cash flow conversion with management signaling disciplined capital allocation.
Bottom line
Palantir is a real product winner: strong sequential revenue growth, very high gross margins, and healthy operating profitability. Those fundamentals justify paying up in a growth stock, but the current implied valuation (simple market-cap estimate near $413B and P/E in the 200x+ range on straightforward annualization) requires continued exceptional execution. For traders and investors who want exposure to Palantir’s AI and analytics story, the trade outlined above is a pragmatic approach: buy into weakness, keep position sizes conservative, use a hard stop, and trade around upcoming earnings and customer milestones.
Disclosure: Not investment advice. This is a trade idea for educational purposes. Position sizes and stop levels should be tailored to your personal risk tolerance and portfolio construction rules.
Note on data and timing
All figures and filings cited are from company quarterly disclosures through 11/04/2025 and market pricing as of 01/28/2026.