January 14, 2026
Finance

Analyst Views iRhythm Technologies' Recent Stock Drop as Excessive Following Preliminary Q4 Update

Despite a notable dip due to guidance adjustments and product launch delays, experts maintain a positive outlook on iRhythm's growth prospects

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Summary

iRhythm Technologies announced promising preliminary results for its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 revenue expectations, surpassing previous guidance. However, shares tumbled approximately 20% following a delayed launch of the Zio MCT device and conservative 2026 guidance, prompting some analyst criticism of the market's reaction. While investors remain cautious, analysts from William Blair see the pullback as an investment opportunity affirming the company’s growth potential and favorable valuation.

Key Points

iRhythm forecasts full-year 2025 revenue exceeding the high end of prior guidance due to strong Q4 unit sales.
Fiscal 2026 revenue is projected between $870 million and $880 million, reflecting 17-18% year-over-year growth, slightly above analyst consensus.
Adjusted EBITDA margins for 2026 are expected at approximately 11.5% to 12.5%, indicating profitability alongside revenue growth.
Stock dropped about 20% following confirmation of delayed Zio MCT device launch to 2027 and conservative 2026 guidance.

Digital health enterprise iRhythm Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:IRTC) recently disclosed operational highlights for its fourth quarter, projecting company revenue for the full 2025 fiscal year to exceed the upper boundary of its prior guidance range of $740 million announced in October 2025. This optimistic outlook is driven primarily by record revenue unit volume observed in the final quarter of 2025, signaling strong sales momentum as the year closed.

The analysts' consensus estimate for 2025 revenue currently stands slightly below iRhythm's forecast, at approximately $737.95 million, underscoring the company's optimistic execution relative to market expectations. Looking ahead, the company has provided revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 of roughly $870 million to $880 million, which constitutes a growth rate of approximately 17% to 18% compared to the preceding year. This projection is modestly above the consensus revenue estimate for 2026, placed by analysts at $862.68 million.

Alongside revenue outlooks, iRhythm anticipates realizing an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 11.5% to 12.5% during 2026. These profitability expectations suggest a disciplined approach to managing operating expenses amid revenue growth.

Quentin Blackford, the President and CEO of iRhythm, commented on the company's strategic positioning as it embarks on 2026. He highlighted several growth catalysts potentially accelerating iRhythm’s leadership in the digital health sector: enhancing presence in primary care and population health markets through partnerships leveraging AI-driven risk stratification; gaining traction in mobile cardiac telemetry; expanding into related fields such as obstructive sleep apnea diagnostics; and pushing forward with international market initiatives.

Despite the favorable revenue guidance and strategic initiatives, iRhythm’s stock experienced a sharp decline of about 20% following the preliminary update. This drop was attributed by William Blair analysts primarily to the announcement of a delay in the launch of the Zio Mobile Cardiac Telemetry (MCT) device now slated for 2027, which contrasts with earlier expectations, and the formalized 2026 guidance that did not fully meet some investor expectations.

Brandon Vazquez, an equity analyst at William Blair, expressed on Wednesday that the market's harsh reaction was disproportionate to the underlying fundamentals. He advocated for investors to view the recent share price weakness as an attractive buying opportunity. Reflecting this stance, William Blair added iRhythm to its Analyst Conviction List, recognizing the stock's favorable growth setup and the rapid reset in valuation that occurred over the course of the last few trading days.

The share price drop followed management's explicit remarks during this week’s investor conference, which clearly acknowledged the postponed Zio MCT launch timeline. Previous commentary during the third-quarter earnings call had hinted at a potential delay, but recent communications confirmed the timing extending into 2027. Consequently, investment models that once assumed significant contributions from the MCT product in 2026 may require revision.

Importantly, discussions between William Blair and iRhythm management indicate that the delay is not rooted in unforeseen regulatory concerns. The firm possesses confidence that any questions raised by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) can be satisfactorily resolved within a reasonable timeframe. Moreover, planning for a 2027 product launch provides operational and regulatory flexibility should further adjustments be requested by the agency. While the delay removes a near-term stock catalyst, it does not undermine the fundamental investment thesis conveyed by William Blair.

Analyst Vazquez maintains his positive perspective, emphasizing that iRhythm appears well positioned to achieve the broader revenue and earnings targets established for 2026. He advocates a measured response by investors, suggesting that the current market valuations — with shares trading at approximately seven times the company's projected 2026 sales — reflect a compelling entry point for those confident in the company’s growth trajectory and operational execution.

At the time of publication on Wednesday, iRhythm Technologies' shares were trading higher by 1.23%, priced at $155.44 according to Benzinga Pro data. This movement indicates some stabilization following the recent selloff, as the market digests the preliminary financial outlook and strategic updates.

Risks
  • Delayed launch of the Zio Mobile Cardiac Telemetry (MCT) device into 2027 removes a near-term revenue catalyst and may affect investor sentiment.
  • Formal 2026 revenue guidance fell short of some street expectations, contributing to stock price volatility.
  • Market models may need adjustment as significant revenue contributions from MCT in 2026 are unlikely.
  • Potential regulatory questions from the FDA could introduce timing uncertainties, though considered manageable by management.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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