In the fourth quarter of 2025, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) delivered financial results that surpassed consensus estimates, affirming its strength in the energy sector despite some operational challenges looming in the upcoming period. The energy giant reported total revenues amounting to $82.3 billion for the quarter, slightly exceeding the consensus forecast of $81.5 billion.
Cash flow dynamics remained a highlight of the quarter, with Exxon Mobil generating $12.7 billion from operations. Additionally, the company posted adjusted free cash flow of $5.6 billion during this period, contributing to a solid liquidity position that culminated in a $10.7 billion cash balance as the year closed.
On the earnings front, Exxon Mobil registered adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.71, outpacing analyst expectations which were set at $1.67 per share. These results underscore the company’s operational efficiency and pricing power even amidst volatile market conditions.
Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, Exxon Mobil issued a cautious production forecast. Upstream volumes are projected to decline by 100,000 to 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day compared to the prior period. Key factors influencing this anticipated decrease include timing effects, scheduled downtime, and the absence of certain favorable entitlements. Despite these near-term headwinds, the company expects to maintain an upstream production rate in the vicinity of 4.9 million oil-equivalent barrels per day over the full year 2026.
Following the release of quarterly results, Exxon Mobil shares saw a decline, trading down 1.7% to close at $139.27 on the Monday subsequent to the earnings announcement.
In response to the company’s earnings report, notable revisions were made by equity analysts regarding Exxon Mobil’s stock outlook and associated price targets. Sam Margolin, an analyst at Wells Fargo, reiterated his Overweight rating on Exxon Mobil shares but adjusted the price target downward slightly from $158 to $156. This subtle reduction signals some tempered enthusiasm despite the positive earnings surprise.
Conversely, Biraj Borkhataria of RBC Capital maintained a Sector Perform rating for the stock but increased the price target from $145 to $150. This upward revision suggests a recognition of value or growth potential that balances the company’s current performance and near-term production outlook.
Overall, the updated analyst perspectives reflect nuanced views regarding Exxon Mobil’s trajectory. On one hand, the fourth-quarter results affirm the company’s ability to deliver robust cash generation and sustained profitability. On the other, short-term production headwinds and operational timing factors introduce elements of caution in forecasting the company’s growth trajectory.
Key Points
- Exxon Mobil surpassed revenue expectations in Q4 2025, reporting $82.3 billion against forecasts of $81.5 billion.
- Cash from operations totaled $12.7 billion, with adjusted free cash flow of $5.6 billion, ending the year with $10.7 billion in cash reserves.
- Adjusted EPS came in at $1.71, beating analyst estimates of $1.67 per share for the quarter.
- Near-term upstream production is expected to decline by 100,000 to 200,000 barrels oil equivalent per day due to timing, downtime, and lack of favorable entitlements.
- For full year 2026, Exxon projects upstream production of approximately 4.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Risks and Uncertainties
- Operational downtime and timing effects may continue to constrain upstream production in the near term.
- Changes or loss of favorable entitlements could adversely impact production volumes.
- Market reaction showed a modest share price decline following earnings, indicating sensitivity to production forecasts.
- Analyst price target adjustments reflect uncertainty about the sustainability of production and cash flow trends.