February 10, 2026
Finance

Analysts Adjust Forecasts After Pagaya Technologies’ Q4 Earnings and Lowered Guidance

Mixed quarterly results and cautious outlook prompt cuts in price targets by leading research firms

Summary

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. released its fourth-quarter financial results showing earnings per share surpassing estimates but sales falling short. The company provided first-quarter revenue guidance below market expectations, leading several analysts to revise their price targets downward while maintaining buy ratings. The report highlights the company’s strategic focus on sustained growth and profitability through disciplined risk management and platform leveraging.

Key Points

Pagaya Technologies’ Q4 earnings per share of $0.80 exceeded the analyst consensus of $0.69, demonstrating solid profitability.
The company’s Q4 revenue totaled $321.036 million, missing the estimated $349.048 million, signaling softness in sales volume or pricing factors.
Pagaya provided Q1 sales guidance between $315 million and $335 million, falling short of expected $346.734 million estimates, indicating cautious revenue outlook.
Analysts from Canaccord Genuity and Benchmark retained buy ratings but reduced price targets, reflecting tempered near-term revenue expectations despite earnings strength.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:PGY) recently concluded its fourth-quarter reporting with figures that delivered a blend of positive earnings performance alongside softer-than-anticipated revenue results. The company announced earnings per share of 80 cents, outperforming the consensus analyst forecast of 69 cents. However, quarterly revenue reached $321.036 million, which fell short of the projected $349.048 million anticipated by analysts.

In providing guidance for the upcoming quarter, Pagaya Technologies forecasted sales ranging from $315 million to $335 million, noticeably lagging behind market consensus estimates pegged at approximately $346.734 million. This conservative forecast suggests the company is adopting a cautious stance amid operational and market dynamics.

Gal Krubiner, CEO and Co-Founder of Pagaya Technologies, emphasized the company’s broader strategic trajectory despite the mixed quarterly data. He noted that the results underscore "the benefits of years of work to position our company for long-term durable growth with a focus on increasing profitability." He highlighted the advantage derived from prior investments "across the entire enterprise," which continue to support profitability expansion. Krubiner also expressed commitment to leveraging the company’s technological platform alongside a disciplined risk framework, aiming to further bridge financial opportunities between Main Street and Wall Street stakeholders.

Following the earnings disclosure on Monday, Pagaya Technologies’ shares experienced a modest uptick, trading 1% higher to reach $14.34 as of Tuesday’s market session.

In response to the earnings report and updated sales outlook, several financial analysts revisited their valuation assumptions. Joseph Vafi of Canaccord Genuity reaffirmed his Buy rating on Pagaya Technologies but revised his price target downward from $39 to $32, reflecting tempered expectations for near-term growth and revenue generation.

Similarly, Mark Palmer from Benchmark maintained a Buy endorsement on the stock but scaled back his price target significantly, lowering it from $48 to $33. These adjustments indicate cautious optimism among analysts who recognize the company’s earnings strength but remain aligned with management’s tempered revenue forecast.

The juxtaposition between earnings outperformance and revenue shortfall creates a nuanced investment landscape. The company’s enhanced profitability and strategic positioning provide a positive baseline, yet the decreased sales guidance injects uncertainty around the pace of growth in forthcoming quarters.

Investor attention is likely to remain focused on whether Pagaya Technologies can translate its platform capabilities and risk management discipline into sustained top-line expansion. Maintaining a balance between expanding market presence and preserving profitability margins will be critical as the company navigates upcoming fiscal periods.

Given this context, stakeholders are advised to monitor further quarterly reports and forward-looking statements to assess ongoing execution against management’s stated objectives and market conditions.

Risks
  • Mismatch between earnings strength and revenue shortfalls may affect future growth momentum and investor confidence.
  • The lowered first-quarter sales guidance introduces uncertainty regarding demand and market conditions.
  • Price target reductions by analysts suggest concerns surrounding the company’s ability to meet prior growth projections.
  • Sustaining profitability while balancing lower-than-expected revenue could challenge operational execution moving forward.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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