Over the past four years, a specific technical pattern in Bitcoin's price movements has garnered considerable attention from traders and analysts alike due to its impressive historical accuracy. Known as the weekly Swing Failure Pattern (SFP), it is characterized by a distinct price action where Bitcoin's price momentarily breaks above a significant swing high or drops below a crucial swing low, only to reverse and close back within the original trading range. This pattern is important because it typically captures liquidity from traders who enter late, thereby marking notable market tops or bottoms.
Since March 2021, Bitcoin has exhibited 22 instances of this weekly SFP. Out of these, 20 instances were followed by price moves exceeding 10% in the opposite direction, signifying a substantial market reaction post-pattern confirmation. Furthermore, 16 of those cases aligned with major turning points within the broader market cycle. These include the peak of the 2021 cycle and the lowest point of the bear market in 2022, underscoring the pattern’s prominence in timing critical shifts.
Yet, despite the solid historical record, caution remains essential when interpreting the SFP in the current environment. According to cryptocurrency analyst Trader Mayne, the implementation of this pattern is highly contingent on precise execution. The process begins with the clear identification of a definitive swing level. Following this, traders must await the weekly closing price to verify the failure — that is, the price closing inside the prior range after breaching the swing level. Only then can an entry be considered on the subsequent trading candle, preferably with stop-loss orders strategically placed beyond the wick to manage risk effectively.
As of now, Bitcoin does not show clear directional momentum, lingering within a neutral zone. For the SFP to present a high-probability bullish setup, Bitcoin would need to dip below recent lows near $85,000 or lower, then rebound to close above this level on a weekly basis. Such a sequence would indicate a confirmed trend reversal. In the absence of this confirmation, Bitcoin currently lacks any definitive trend signals that traders typically rely upon for confident positioning.
Supporting the call for prudence, crypto trader PostyXBT has outlined two opposing macro-level scenarios influencing Bitcoin's trajectory. The bullish perspective suggests that Bitcoin could establish a higher low on higher timeframes following an approximate 35% correction. This type of shakeout is a common feature within bull cycles, potentially setting the stage for renewed upward momentum.
Conversely, the bearish outlook warns that Bitcoin's price has yet to exhibit convincing strength following the recent pullback. This raises concerns that the four-year market cycle might have already culminated at its peak, hinting at possible prolonged weakness. Adding to this cautionary tone, PostyXBT points out that until Bitcoin regains ground within the $98,000 to $100,000 range, a meaningful bullish trend remains uncertain. In such a scenario, the current price action might be a temporary dead-cat bounce or a bearish retest rather than the start of a sustained upswing.
Despite these uncertainties, PostyXBT maintains a constructive long-term view on Bitcoin’s prospects, though he emphasizes that the first and second quarters of 2026 will likely be marked by market ambiguity. Clarity on the direction would depend on stronger confirmation from higher timeframe indicators.
In recent market developments, Bitcoin reclaimed a level near $92,000, with related cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and XRP also registering approximate 2% gains. These movements reflect ongoing market fluctuations that keep investors and analysts attentive to emerging patterns and signals.