December 27, 2025
Finance

Analyzing Nvidia's Strategic Investments in Data Center Firms and Implications for 2026

Examining Applied Digital and Nebius as Potential 2026 Investment Candidates Backed by Nvidia

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Summary

Nvidia, a leader in GPU technology and AI infrastructure, has disclosed significant holdings in Applied Digital and Nebius, two companies engaged in the rapidly expanding data center market. This article assesses Nvidia's investment rationale, the growth trajectories of these firms, and compares the risk-return profiles of investing directly in Nvidia or its holdings in anticipation of market developments by 2026.

Key Points

SEC regulations require companies owning over $100 million in public equities to file quarterly disclosures (Form 13F) within 45 days after quarter end.
Nvidia is the largest GPU producer globally and benefits from significant insight into AI and related tech sector dynamics.
Nvidia has invested in six public companies, with Applied Digital and Nebius Group being notable due to their roles in the data center sector.
Applied Digital focuses on designing, building, and operating data centers, which utilize Nvidia's hardware, possibly influencing Nvidia's stake acquisition.
Applied Digital's stock surged approximately 238% in 2025, propelled by long-term leases with AI firms like CoreWeave, though it remains unprofitable.
Nebius Group is experiencing rapid growth with projected ARR escalating from $900 million–$1.1 billion in 2025 to $7 billion–$9 billion by 2026.
Nvidia owns about 0.5% of Nebius, indicating a strategic yet relatively small investment in the firm.
Investors must consider risk profiles: Applied Digital and Nebius carry higher risk due to ongoing losses, while Nvidia offers profitability and stability.

Companies holding portfolios exceeding $100 million in other public equities are mandated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to file detailed disclosures on their holdings quarterly. These filings, known as Form 13Fs, are released publicly within 45 days following the end of each quarter and often garner interest from market participants aiming to gauge the investment strategies of prominent firms.

In this context, Nvidia—a dominant player in the global GPU market—stands out due to its unique vantage point on technological advancements and emerging trends within the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Nvidia's success in product sales has generated substantial capital, enabling the company to allocate resources toward equity stakes in other firms it identifies as having promising growth prospects.

As of the close of the third quarter, Nvidia reported ownership positions in six publicly traded companies, two of which merit particular consideration by investors looking toward 2026: Applied Digital and Nebius Group. Both of these entities operate within the data center industry, which is experiencing an uptick driven by AI-related demand, although each approaches the sector from differing operational angles.

Applied Digital specializes in the design, construction, and operation of data centers tailored for various clientele. The functionality of these centers inherently relies on high-performance computing hardware, much of which is produced by Nvidia. It is plausible that Nvidia's equity stake—approximately 7.7 million shares, amounting to close to 2.8% of Applied Digital's outstanding shares—originated as part of transactional arrangements, potentially involving stock as payment for services or equipment.

Applied Digital's equity has performed robustly in 2025, appreciating roughly 238%, catalyzed by announcements of long-term lease contracts spanning 15 years with AI-focused tenants, including CoreWeave, another firm in which Nvidia has a vested interest. While Applied Digital has yet to achieve profitability, its expansion of computing infrastructure suggests potential for future sustained cash flow generation, aligning with Nvidia's strategic positioning in the sector.

Nebius Group operates on a comparable premise, deploying comprehensive data center solutions for clients requiring significant AI processing capacity. Its growth trajectory has been steep, with projections indicating annual recurring revenue (ARR) between $900 million and $1.1 billion by the end of 2025. Expectations for 2026 elevate this figure substantially, forecasting ARR in the range of $7 billion to $9 billion. These projections reflect the escalating, insatiable demand for AI-driven computational resources.

Nvidia holds a smaller share in Nebius, about 1.2 million shares or roughly 0.5% of the company. Despite the relatively limited ownership percentage, the prospective rapid expansion of Nebius suggests potential for significant appreciation that could validate Nvidia's investment thesis.

Investment Considerations: Direct Nvidia Exposure Versus Its Data Center Holdings

For investors evaluating where to allocate capital for 2026, several factors warrant attention. Applied Digital and Nebius, despite compelling growth narratives, remain unprofitable as they scale operations to meet generative AI workload demand. This operational reality introduces elevated risk profiles for shareholders, emphasising the speculative nature of such investments.

Conversely, Nvidia itself maintains profitability and demonstrates robust financial health amid its thriving product segments. Investors must weigh the trade-offs between engaging with smaller, high-growth yet loss-making entities versus a firmly established, profitable technology leader that also holds positions in these incumbents.

Ultimately, the decision hinges on individual risk tolerance and growth expectations. The dynamic nature of AI-driven markets imparts uncertainty that complicates definitive verdicts on which equities will outperform reliably by 2026.

Risks
  • Applied Digital and Nebius are currently unprofitable and likely to remain so for several years as they scale operations.
  • Relying on the growth of data centers to meet demand from AI workloads carries inherent uncertainty tied to technology adoption rates.
  • Small ownership stakes held by Nvidia in these companies may limit influence and control over strategic decisions.
  • Stock price volatility is evident, highlighted by Applied Digital's wide 52-week trading range from $3.31 to $40.20 and Nebius' range from $18.31 to $141.10.
  • The future performance of these investments depends heavily on successful execution of growth strategies and market acceptance of AI computational demands.
  • The inherent unpredictability of generative AI market evolution introduces ambiguity in long-term revenue forecasts.
Disclosure
The information presented is based solely on disclosed Nvidia holdings as reported in SEC filings and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions as the article does not include speculative forecasts or external data.
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