Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) remains absent from the foldable smartphone market, a segment gaining considerable momentum as seen through efforts by industry leaders such as Samsung Electronics Co. (OTC: SSNLF). However, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, renowned for his expertise in following Apple's supply chain developments, provides a nuanced perspective that challenges perceptions of Apple's delayed introduction into foldable technology.
Kuo contends that the delay in releasing a foldable iPhone does not equate to a significant strategic disadvantage. He notes that foldable devices powered by Android platforms have yet to establish a dominant presence in the premium smartphone segment. "Android foldables still haven't become mainstream in the premium segment," Kuo stated, emphasizing that the foldable category remains at an early, underpenetrated phase.
Given the current limited adoption among high-end consumers, Kuo suggests Apple's later entry does not imply a missed opportunity for significant market impact. The emphasis shifts from hardware novelty to refinement of software and user interface experiences, areas where Apple could potentially leverage its strengths. Kuo highlighted that current foldable smartphones continue to struggle particularly with software and UI functionality, suggesting that Apple's expertise therein might provide a crucial advantage.
"If Apple can truly nail the software and UI experience around foldables — an area where current Android foldables are still lacking — I believe most consumers would welcome a larger display," Kuo remarked, adding the caveat that the device must preserve ease of portability.
Envisioning the broader market implications, Kuo proposes that a well-executed foldable iPhone could stimulate a refreshed upgrade cycle in the high-end smartphone market, fostering growth within the category. Such an event could serve as a catalyst for competitors to align with Apple's standards, thereby expanding the foldable segment more broadly.
Samsung, Apple's longstanding competitor and current leader in foldable technologies, expressed optimism about the foldable market's development trajectory. According to a statement provided to Benzinga, Samsung described foldables as entering an "acceleration phase," supported by projections from TechInsights anticipating shipments exceeding 20 million units in 2025.
Samsung highlighted the evolution of foldable phones, noting advancements that have made new devices thinner, lighter, and more durable, thereby transcending the initial novelty factor and enhancing everyday usability. Consumer preferences have reportedly shifted towards features enabled by foldables — including multitasking capabilities, enhanced productivity with larger screens, and integration of artificial intelligence — rather than focusing solely on the form factor. Regarding Apple's prospective involvement, Samsung acknowledged new competitors as beneficial to validating and expanding the foldable category, while reaffirming its commitment to sustaining leadership through ongoing innovation.
Market research firm Counterpoint Research released a report in December 2025 documenting that global shipments of foldable smartphones increased by 14% year-over-year during the third quarter of 2025, reaching an all-time quarterly high. This surge was driven in significant part by Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold7 series. For the full year 2025, shipments are projected to maintain mid-teens percentage growth annually, with expectations for a sharper acceleration in 2026 as hardware technology matures and Apple's entrance potentially boosts demand in the premium segment. Samsung's recent Galaxy Z TriFold launch is perceived as a strategic effort to reinforce its technological leadership preceding broader commercial introduction in future product cycles.
Market sentiment has shifted from speculative analyst reports to tangible trading activity concerning the launch timeline for a foldable iPhone. Polymarket traders currently assign a 76% probability that Apple will launch a foldable iPhone before 2027, a considerable increase from an estimated 42% probability recorded in mid-December 2025. Pricing expectations for the purported device are similarly bullish on the premium nature of the product. Kalshi market data suggest a 92% likelihood that the starting retail price will be at or above $1,800, an 80% chance it will exceed $2,000, and roughly 65% odds that it could command a price of $2,200 or more.
Despite these developments, Apple's stock maintains a robust medium and long-term performance outlook according to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings, even though it is currently experiencing short-term market pressures and headwinds. The evolving dynamics within the foldable smartphone segment are poised to influence Apple's trajectory as well as broader industry patterns.
This analysis presents a detailed overview of the strategic timing and market context surrounding Apple's engagement with foldable smartphones, emphasizing the critical role of software and interface innovation alongside hardware advancements, framed by competitive actions and market growth projections.