Asian Markets See Mixed Moves Amid Taiwan Military Drills and Holiday-Thin Trading
December 28, 2025
News & Politics

Asian Markets See Mixed Moves Amid Taiwan Military Drills and Holiday-Thin Trading

China’s military exercises near Taiwan accompany cautious investor behavior and commodity price shifts in a subdued trading environment

Summary

Amid holiday-thinned trading volumes, Asian stock markets experienced mostly declines as China conducted military drills around Taiwan, heightening geopolitical tensions. Commodity prices displayed varied trends with gold and silver prices retreating from recent highs while oil prices pushed upward. The U.S. stock futures showed minimal change as markets prepared to conclude the year. Investor sentiment remains cautiously observant of regional developments and regulatory adjustments affecting key sectors.

Key Points

China’s military exercises near Taiwan elevate geopolitical tensions, impacting investor sentiment in Asian markets.
Despite the military activity, Taiwan’s stock market rises while Hong Kong and mainland China markets show weakness or negligible movement.
Commodity prices diverge with gold and silver declining amid recent supply adjustments and investor positioning, whereas oil prices recover following recent losses.

Markets across Asia encountered predominantly downward pressure during a trading session characterized by light volume due to regional holidays. This subdued activity coincided with China’s announcement of military drills conducted in proximity to Taiwan, an island whose sovereignty is contested by Beijing. Despite heightened tensions from these maneuvers, Taiwan’s stock market demonstrated resilience, advancing moderately.

China’s People's Liberation Army reported that the exercises aimed to send a message opposing what it described as separatist activities and outside intervention, a statement that did not explicitly mention the U.S. or Japan despite ongoing geopolitical sensitivities involving these countries. Taiwan responded by elevating its military alert status, labeling Beijing as a significant disruptor of regional peace.

The backdrop to these military drills was recent friction arising from U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, alongside comments from Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting possible Japanese defense participation should China take assertive action on the island. However, China’s official remarks refrained from direct reference to Japan or the United States in this context.

Within regional equity markets, Taiwan's Taiex index registered a gain of 0.9%, reflecting investor confidence despite military activities nearby. Conversely, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index retreated by 0.7% after failing to sustain earlier advances, closing at 25,637.69. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite index held steady, remaining virtually unchanged at 3,965.28.

In other Asian equity movements, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 declined by 0.4% to 50,526.92 amid cautious trading. South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 2.2% to 4,220.56, approaching its all-time high set in early November. This rise was significantly bolstered by a 6.8% surge in SK Hynix shares, attributed to the removal of an investment warning following regulatory reassessment. Samsung Electronics also contributed positively with a 2.1% increase.

Australian markets expressed weakness as the S&P/ASX 200 index slipped 0.4% to 8,725.70, reflective of the general cautious tone observable across the region.

Turning to commodities, precious metals experienced retracements following recent upward trends. Gold prices declined by 1.3%, settling at $4,494 per troy ounce, while silver dropped 2.4% to $75.30. These metals had risen recently amid supply constraints and investor demand for safe-haven assets beyond traditional stocks and bonds. Earlier gold prices were also lifted by concerns related to past U.S. government shutdowns and expectations of forthcoming Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, which typically weaken the dollar and enhance gold’s appeal.

Silver’s price has been influenced by additional factors, notably changes in China’s export policy. As the world’s largest refiner of silver, processing approximately two-thirds of global supplies, China recently transitioned from an export quota system to an export licensing regime effective January 1. Industry experts emphasize that this adjustment significantly tightens supply availability, impacting downstream industrial users rapidly.

In U.S. markets, equities reopened following the Christmas holiday with minimal shifts: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both declined by less than 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite also edged lower by 0.1%. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has increased nearly 18%, supported by policy changes under the current administration and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence prospects. The market environment remained subdued due to institutional investors largely pausing activity for the year-end period.

Commodity prices for crude oil exhibited a modest rebound. U.S. benchmark crude futures rose by 68 cents to close at $57.42 per barrel, and Brent crude oil advanced 66 cents to $60.90 per barrel. These gains followed prior declines observed the previous Friday, when U.S. crude and Brent crude dropped by 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.

Currency markets displayed minor adjustments with the U.S. dollar retreating slightly against the Japanese yen from 156.56 yen to 156.23 yen, while the euro inched higher against the dollar, climbing from $1.1770 to $1.1777.

Risks
  • Potential escalation in cross-strait military activities could destabilize markets sensitive to geopolitical events, particularly impacting defense and technology sectors.
  • Supply constraints and policy changes in China regarding silver exports may disrupt industrial supply chains, affecting manufacturing and related industries.
  • Uncertainty in monetary policy and geopolitical developments could prolong market volatility, complicating investment and operational planning in regional equity and commodity markets.
Disclosure
The analysis presented is based solely on the provided information and does not constitute investment advice. No forecasts or projections beyond the stated facts have been made.
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