Shares of AST SpaceMobile Inc (NASDAQ:ASTS) experienced a notable decline midweek following the unveiling of Blue Origin's TeraWave satellite communications system. This announcement introduced a highly capable competitor promising data transmission speeds up to 6 terabits per second through a constellation of 5,408 satellites operating in multiple orbits.
The market response to Blue Origin’s move highlights investor concern over increased competition in the satellite-to-smartphone connectivity space, particularly for challenging global markets where reaching remote and underserved regions is key. This new entrant has the potential to influence ASTS’s projections regarding future revenue streams and market share acquisition.
After a striking rally that saw AST SpaceMobile's stock propelled to new all-time highs, some traders appeared to capitalize on gains, contributing to the stock’s midday pullback. Over the past twelve months, ASTS shares surged approximately 370%, driven by optimism surrounding the successful launch of its first major BlueBird 6 satellite and an aggressive plan to deploy between 45 and 60 satellites by the end of 2026.
This upward movement was bolstered by widespread enthusiasm for aerospace and defense sector equities, as well as the stock's inclusion in multiple aerospace and mid-cap exchange-traded funds. Such ETF placements tend to magnify price movements in response to shifting fund flows, amplifying both upward and downward trends.
AST SpaceMobile’s core business focuses on constructing a constellation of large phased-array satellites in low Earth orbit aimed at establishing a cellular broadband network capable of connecting directly to standard 4G and 5G smartphones without any need for user hardware modifications. This technology is designed to extend mobile coverage to regions that are difficult to reach, enhancing connectivity resilience for major carriers including AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone.
Beyond its commercial applications, ASTS is diversifying its portfolio through its involvement in U.S. defense initiatives. Notably, it secured a strategic position in the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program, which falls under the broader Golden Dome initiative. This engagement presents opportunities for ASTS to compete for future defense-related research contracts, prototype development, and operational work, potentially providing an additional revenue stream and expanding its technological reach.
From a technical perspective, ASTS exhibits strong momentum indicators. The stock currently trades roughly 10.8% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 44.7% above its 100-day SMA, evidencing robust medium and long-term gains. Gains over the trailing year total approximately 326.84%, with the price positioned nearer to 52-week highs than lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66.98, which is within neutral range, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, consistent with continued bullish momentum. This combination of technical readings suggests sustained upward pressure despite the recent pullback.
Investors are closely monitoring AST SpaceMobile ahead of its upcoming earnings report expected in March. Projections estimate a net loss of 19 cents per share, slightly wider than the prior year’s loss of 18 cents. On the revenue front, analysts anticipate a significant increase to approximately $39.03 million compared to last year's $1.92 million, indicating substantial top-line growth despite ongoing losses.
Consensus among financial analysts assigns ASTS a Hold rating, with a mean price target around $61.08. Notable recent changes include upgrades from B. Riley Securities, raising the rating to Neutral and target price to $105 as of January 13, and Scotiabank, which adjusted to Sector Underperform with a target of $45.60 on January 7.
Benzinga's Edge scorecard identifies AST SpaceMobile as possessing pronounced momentum, with a score of 98.96 out of 100, signaling strong outperformance relative to the broader market. However, this high momentum must be considered alongside mixed technical signals, underscoring the need for careful investor appraisal amid the volatility.
In terms of fund exposure, ASTS holds substantial weighting within several aerospace-focused ETFs. It represents 4.27% of the First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE:MISL), 3.48% of the Defiance Connective Technologies ETF (NASDAQ:SIXG), and is heavily leveraged at 120.88% within the Tradr 2X Long ASTS Daily ETF (NASDAQ:ASTX). Consequently, fluctuations in the inflows or outflows of these funds have the potential to sharply influence ASTS's share price through automatic trading mechanisms.
At the time of this report, AST SpaceMobile's stock price declined 11.28% to $99.76, according to Benzinga Pro data, reflecting the market's reassessment of its valuation following recent market events.
Looking forward, investors interested in AST SpaceMobile will need to balance the company's promising technological advancements and defense sector initiatives against emerging competitive pressures and typical volatility associated with high-growth, speculative equities.