Cava Group Inc., a publicly traded restaurant chain specializing in Mediterranean cuisine, has become a focal point for analysts assessing its market potential beyond immediate operational setbacks. Sarang Vora, an analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, has recently commenced coverage on the company with a positive stance, assigning an Outperform rating and projecting a target price of $85 per share. Vora characterizes Cava as an emerging growth story grounded in robust unit expansion and clear differentiation within the competitive restaurant space.
Vora emphasizes the company's ability to distinguish itself through authentic Mediterranean menu offerings coupled with disciplined operational execution and solid unit-level economics. Central to the long-term growth thesis is Cava's multi-year plan to increase its footprint substantially, targeting the opening of over 1,000 restaurants by 2032. This envisaged expansion represents more than a doubling from its anticipated store count of approximately 435 locations in 2025.
Driving this growth, according to the analyst, will be a combination of factors including ongoing menu innovation, strategic remodel initiatives under the banner 'Project Soul', and technology enhancements exemplified by the 'Connected Kitchen' program. Additionally, the company's culture, which prioritizes food quality, talent development, customer-centric service, and hospitality, is deemed a critical component likely to fuel sustained performance improvements.
Despite these encouraging prospects, Vora acknowledges that Cava's business momentum decelerated through 2025. The slowdown is largely attributed to difficult year-over-year comparisons following the launch of highly successful products in prior periods. However, he notes these near-term challenges have already been accounted for in the stock's roughly 40 percent price decline over the trailing twelve months.
Looking ahead, the analyst is optimistic that the stock will rebound starting in 2026, as investors realign their focus on the company's long-term unit growth strategy and operational enhancements. He identifies potential macroeconomic tailwinds that could support performance, including anticipated increases in tax refunds, stable or declining gasoline prices, and reductions in interest rates.
Valuation metrics underpinning Vora's $85 price target involve applying an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of approximately 54 times to his 2026 EBITDA forecast of $181 million. His projections also include an improvement in same-store sales growth rates to the 4 to 5 percent range during the latter half of 2026 and into 2027, reversing the declines experienced in late 2025. Correspondingly, restaurant-level operating margins are expected to recover in the second half of 2026 and expand further in the following year.
On the trading day reflected in the analysis, Cava Group's shares were up 2.28 percent, trading near $71.19, signaling modest investor confidence in the company’s strategic path forward. This price movement occurred within a broader market context attentive to the restaurant sector’s recovery dynamics.
Overall, the outlook for Cava Group, as delineated by the analyst, paints a picture of a brand leveraging distinctiveness in its cuisine and customer approach to execute a clear long-term expansion roadmap. While challenges persist in the short term, these are balanced against strong unit economics and a culture that fosters continual improvement, which together support the case for eventual upside in both operational results and share price performance.
Vora emphasizes the company's ability to distinguish itself through authentic Mediterranean menu offerings coupled with disciplined operational execution and solid unit-level economics. Central to the long-term growth thesis is Cava's multi-year plan to increase its footprint substantially, targeting the opening of over 1,000 restaurants by 2032. This envisaged expansion represents more than a doubling from its anticipated store count of approximately 435 locations in 2025.
Driving this growth, according to the analyst, will be a combination of factors including ongoing menu innovation, strategic remodel initiatives under the banner 'Project Soul', and technology enhancements exemplified by the 'Connected Kitchen' program. Additionally, the company's culture, which prioritizes food quality, talent development, customer-centric service, and hospitality, is deemed a critical component likely to fuel sustained performance improvements.
Despite these encouraging prospects, Vora acknowledges that Cava's business momentum decelerated through 2025. The slowdown is largely attributed to difficult year-over-year comparisons following the launch of highly successful products in prior periods. However, he notes these near-term challenges have already been accounted for in the stock's roughly 40 percent price decline over the trailing twelve months.
Looking ahead, the analyst is optimistic that the stock will rebound starting in 2026, as investors realign their focus on the company's long-term unit growth strategy and operational enhancements. He identifies potential macroeconomic tailwinds that could support performance, including anticipated increases in tax refunds, stable or declining gasoline prices, and reductions in interest rates.
Valuation metrics underpinning Vora's $85 price target involve applying an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of approximately 54 times to his 2026 EBITDA forecast of $181 million. His projections also include an improvement in same-store sales growth rates to the 4 to 5 percent range during the latter half of 2026 and into 2027, reversing the declines experienced in late 2025. Correspondingly, restaurant-level operating margins are expected to recover in the second half of 2026 and expand further in the following year.
On the trading day reflected in the analysis, Cava Group's shares were up 2.28 percent, trading near $71.19, signaling modest investor confidence in the company’s strategic path forward. This price movement occurred within a broader market context attentive to the restaurant sector’s recovery dynamics.
Overall, the outlook for Cava Group, as delineated by the analyst, paints a picture of a brand leveraging distinctiveness in its cuisine and customer approach to execute a clear long-term expansion roadmap. While challenges persist in the short term, these are balanced against strong unit economics and a culture that fosters continual improvement, which together support the case for eventual upside in both operational results and share price performance.