February 3, 2026
Finance

Chipotle Surpasses Q4 Revenue and Earnings Expectations, Projects Static Comparable Sales in 2026

Chipotle's robust restaurant expansion and digital sales contribute to Q4 outperformance despite declining transactions

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Summary

Chipotle Mexican Grill delivered stronger-than-expected financial results in the fourth quarter, driven by revenue growth from new store openings and increased gift card breakage revenue. Despite a year-over-year decrease in comparable restaurant sales and transactions, the company posted higher earnings than anticipated and outlined a conservative outlook for 2026 comparable sales. Its expansion strategy emphasizes Chipotlane inclusion in new locations, while management remains focused on leveraging unique brand attributes to boost growth.

Key Points

Chipotle reported fourth-quarter revenue of $2.98 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $2.96 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share came in at 25 cents, beating the forecasted 24 cents.
Comparable restaurant sales declined 2.5% year-over-year due to a 3.2% drop in transactions, partly offset by a 0.7% increase in average check size.
The company opened 132 new restaurants in Q4, with 97 locations featuring the drive-thru Chipotlane format, supporting revenue growth and future expansion plans.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc, the well-known fast-casual restaurant chain, released its financial performance for the fourth quarter, reporting results that exceeded analyst expectations. The company generated $2.98 billion in revenue during this period, surpassing the forecasted $2.96 billion. Adjusted earnings per share stood at 25 cents, also beating the consensus estimate of 24 cents per share according to the data compiled by Benzinga Pro.

Comparing the current quarter to the previous year, Chipotle's total revenue increased by 4.9%. However, the comparable restaurant sales metric, which reflects a year-over-year comparison of sales from stores open at least a year, experienced a decline of 2.5%. This downturn was primarily attributable to a 3.2% reduction in customer transactions, which was partly offset by a modest 0.7% rise in average spend per customer.

The growth in overall revenue can be linked to several factors. Foremost among them was the introduction of 132 newly opened restaurants during the quarter. Notably, 97 out of these 132 establishments featured a "Chipotlane," the chain's innovative drive-thru format designed to facilitate digital order pickup. Furthermore, the company recorded a significant increase in gift card breakage revenue, amounting to $27 million, which represents an uplift of $19.1 million compared with the prior year period.

Within Chipotle's overall food and beverage revenue, digital sales constituted a substantial 37.2%, reflecting ongoing consumer adoption of online and app-based ordering channels. On the profitability front, the restaurant-level operating margin reached 23.4% for the quarter, illustrating operational efficiency at individual locations.

CEO Scott Boatwright addressed the company's performance by highlighting the challenging and changing consumer environment in which these achievements were realized. He noted, "Against a dynamic consumer backdrop, we opened a record number of restaurants globally and grew Q4 and full year revenue. This momentum will fuel our next phase of growth, driven by our 'Recipe for Growth' strategy, which leans into what uniquely differentiates our brand to accelerate transactions and expand our footprint globally."

From a capital deployment perspective, Chipotle executed share repurchases amounting to $741.6 million during the quarter. As of December 31, 2025, the company retained $1.7 billion authorized and available for buybacks.

Looking ahead, Chipotle announced guidance that foresees comparable restaurant sales remaining "about flat" for the year 2026. This cautious forecast recognizes current market conditions and strategic priorities. The company also signaled plans to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants next year, with approximately 80% of these new sites expected to incorporate the Chipotlane drive-thru concept.

Investors and analysts were invited to discuss these results and the company’s outlook further in a scheduled earnings call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

Following the announcement, Chipotle’s shares experienced downward movement in after-hours trading, falling 3.75% to $37.70 at the time of reporting. This reaction reflects market assessments of the results and the forward-looking guidance provided.

In summary, while Chipotle outperformed expectations on several key financial metrics in the fourth quarter, including revenue and earnings per share, the declining customer transactions and anticipated flat comparable sales in 2026 point to uncertainties that the company will need to navigate. Nonetheless, the strategic focus on restaurant growth—especially with the Chipotlane model—and significant digital sales penetration provide avenues for sustained operational performance and competitive positioning.
Risks
  • Year-over-year comparable restaurant sales declined, suggesting challenges in maintaining customer traffic despite revenue growth.
  • The guidance for approximately flat comparable sales in 2026 indicates potential pressure on same-store sales growth going forward.
  • A decrease in customer transactions could impact long-term revenue sustainability if not effectively offset.
  • The stock's after-hours decline following earnings suggests investor concerns or uncertainty regarding the forward outlook.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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