Robert Friedland, a highly regarded figure in the mining sector and founder of Ivanhoe Mines, has become a prominent voice addressing the world’s critical minerals shortage. Friedland consistently stresses that ongoing global ambitions in various advanced technologies and national security initiatives are exposing the inadequacies of the current mineral supply framework.
In a recent comprehensive discussion with Bloomberg, Friedland articulated that the global economic landscape is undergoing a profound and durable transformation, propelled by evolving geopolitical dynamics that reconfigure traditional supply chain models. He observed that the world is fragmenting into competing economic blocs, with raw materials designated as essential focal points for the foreseeable future.
Central to Friedland’s analysis is the fundamental change in supply chain philosophy. Historically, globalization fostered an environment reliant on highly integrated, lean inventory systems optimized for cost efficiency and rapid turnover. However, the emerging paradigm favors robustness and risk mitigation to safeguard against disruptions. Friedland succinctly describes this transition as moving from a "just-in-time" approach to a "just-in-case" economic model.
According to Friedland, this shift will significantly elevate the value of certain critical materials, potentially reaching levels of near-infinite worth due to their indispensability in modern economies. This perspective includes an alert that national currencies may experience devaluation relative to these essential commodities, highlighting their strategic priority.
An exemplar of this new approach is illustrated by Friedland’s involvement with Sunrise Energy Metals, an Australian mining company where he serves as co-chair. This company operates the Syerston project located in New South Wales, which is recognized as holding the world’s largest and highest-grade deposit of scandium currently under development.
Sunrise Energy Metals experienced remarkable market performance in 2025, with its stock appreciating by approximately 3,400%. This surge coincided with increased attention from the United States government and a strategic option agreement with aerospace and defense contractor Lockheed Martin. Friedland views the Syerston project as a template representing a secure and integrated critical minerals supply chain. The project benefits from stable political oversight, refinement processes based in the United States, and direct applications in advanced manufacturing and defense sectors.
While scandium has gained heightened focus, Friedland also stresses the critical challenges facing copper supply. He points out that annual global consumption of copper stands at 30 million tons, but only a small portion, about 4 million tons, is sourced from recycling efforts. To sustain even modest economic growth rates of 3% GDP annually without adopting electrification efficiencies, humanity would need to extract an amount of copper in the next 18 years equivalent to that removed over the past 10,000 years. This statistic underscores the formidable scale of demand growth.
The difficulties are exacerbated by declining ore quality, escalating extraction costs, and long lead times required for mining development projects. Friedland warned that the energy required to produce copper has increased sixteenfold since 1900, reflecting growing complexity and resource intensity.
To address these challenges, Friedland advocates for deploying modern mining technologies, including advanced exploration methodologies, high-pulse electrical processing, and energy-efficient refining techniques. These innovations aim to accelerate deposit evaluation, reduce environmental impact through lower emissions, and enhance metal recovery rates.
The absence of such technological breakthroughs, he cautions, could result in a collision between finite geological resource limits and expanding requirements mandated by the global energy transition, the proliferation of artificial intelligence, and broader economic development imperatives.
Key Points
- The global mineral supply chain is transitioning from a lean, efficiency-focused model to a resilience-centric "just-in-case" framework due to geopolitical pressures.
- Critical raw materials will bear increasing strategic importance, potentially outpacing traditional currency value considerations.
- Sunrise Energy Metals’ Syerston project exemplifies a stable, integrated supply chain for scandium, combining secure mining, refining, and end-use alignment.
- Copper demand is escalating at an unprecedented scale that challenges historical production limits, exacerbated by declining ore grades and higher energy costs in mining.
Risks and Uncertainties
- The difficulty of significantly expanding copper production due to geological constraints, higher operational costs, and prolonged project timelines.
- Potential currency devaluation risks relative to critical minerals, impacting economic stability for nations reliant on fiat currencies.
- Dependence on technological advancements to improve mining efficiency and environmental metrics; failure to innovate may restrict mineral availability.
- Geopolitical fragmentation may complicate global supply chains and create barriers to resource access and investment.