Iran is currently experiencing its most violent anti-government upheaval since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, as widespread protests have escalated into a crisis marked by thousands of deaths. This surge in unrest has exposed a growing rift between the United States and Europe in their approaches to addressing the situation.
European countries, heavily reliant on Iranian oil imports, find their policy options limited in seeking to impose stringent sanctions or punitive measures against Tehran. European policymakers face the challenge of balancing human rights concerns with the continent's energy needs, which leaves Brussels with reduced leverage compared to the United States.
In contrast, the US administration perceives the unrest in Iran within the context of a broader geopolitical contest aiming to diminish China's strategic influence. A crucial aspect of this is the US effort to cut off China's access to Iranian oil supplies.
The protests erupted following a dramatic depreciation of the Iranian rial, which lost over 96% of its value against the US dollar within a month. This economic collapse acted as a catalyst for citizens to take to the streets, demanding change.
The Iranian government, under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, responded with a lethal crackdown on protestors. Independent reports indicate that since the protests began on December 28, the death toll may have exceeded 12,000, though official Iranian figures acknowledge roughly 5,000 deaths.
Authorities have labeled demonstrators as 'rioters, organizers, and leaders of anti-security movements' and vowed to apply harsh measures without leniency.
The ongoing unrest now poses the gravest threat to the Iranian regime since it assumed power in 1979.
Iran’s position as a major oil producer, yielding approximately 3.3 million barrels daily and a key petroleum supplier to China with about 1.3 million barrels per day, elevates the global stakes of the unrest. Within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran ranks as the fourth-largest producer, trailing Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.
Compounding concerns is the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz—a maritime chokepoint carrying an estimated 20% of the world’s oil supply, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Qatar. Disruptions through this narrow passage could precipitate severe shocks in global energy markets.
Energy research group BloombergNEF projects that Brent crude prices could escalate to $71 per barrel by the second quarter and potentially reach $91 per barrel by year-end if oil flows through the strait were interrupted.
Experts point to Iran's historical willingness to leverage tactics like closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening nuclear escalation as strategic options still available to Tehran amid current turmoil.
The European Union (EU), which sees over 30% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports transit the Strait of Hormuz, faces economic vulnerability should regional tensions intensify. The EU, already coping with sluggish growth—the International Monetary Fund estimated a 1.4% GDP increase for the Euro Area in 2025—must consider the ramifications of energy supply risks.
Individual EU member economies reflect this fragile growth, with Germany expanding by only 0.2% compared to the United States' 4.3% growth rate in the third quarter.
As a result, Brussels has adopted a more constrained and largely symbolic stance toward Iran. Proposed measures include sanctions targeting Iran's interior minister and other senior figures implicated in the harsh suppression of protestors.
The European Parliament has urged for the designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, citing verified involvement in violence against demonstrators. Nonetheless, internal divisions within the EU have impeded this designation, with notable member states opposing formal terrorist labeling.
EU officials have diplomatically summoned Iranian representatives to respond to widespread reports of brutality but have stopped short of implementing decisive penalties.
Statements by European leaders criticize the violence, yet officials like British Business Secretary Peter Kyle and France’s UN Ambassador Jerome Bonnafont emphasize sanctions as the principal mechanism of response, rejecting terrorist classification of the IRGC as inappropriate or divisive.
Critiques from external observers, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, suggest Europe's restrained posture favors symbolic actions over meaningful support for Iranian democracy and human rights.
Meanwhile, the United States maintains a significantly tougher approach, partly enabled by its reduced energy exposure to the Persian Gulf region, with less than 10% of US oil imports originating there.
The Trump administration has issued warnings of potential military intervention should Iran escalate violent repression against peaceful protestors. Reinforcements of US military assets in the region have been mobilized, including deployment of F-15E strike fighter jets and the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.
Washington’s strategy fundamentally extends beyond Iran, encompassing a larger aim to safeguard and sever China's energy security. In 2025, China accounted for over 80% of Iran’s oil exports, underscoring the strategic value of Iran’s oil supplies to Beijing.
Analysts highlight how regime change in Iran could disrupt China's access to low-cost energy resources, significantly challenging the country's industrial and military operations and diminishing Beijing's geopolitical position.
Moreover, a destabilized Iran could permit the US to intensify its military and strategic presence in the Asia-Pacific region, complicating China’s regional ambitions, including plans concerning Taiwan.
US actions in other regions, such as efforts against the Venezuelan regime, further illustrate Washington's intent to counter Chinese influence worldwide. Venezuela had served as a critical partner for China in Latin America, supplying oil and military equipment, yet recent developments demonstrate China’s limited capacity to resist US pressure effectively.
In sum, the crisis in Iran has magnified existing divergences in Western foreign policies shaped by differing energy dependencies and strategic priorities. The conflict underscores the interplay between domestic unrest, regional stability, energy security, and global power competition, with potential reverberations that extend well beyond Iran’s borders.