In the evolving market for weight loss pharmaceuticals, Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:LLY) has recently strengthened its position against competitor Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO), following divergent outlooks for the fiscal year 2026. Over the last two trading days, Novo Nordisk’s stock value has declined by approximately 18% subsequent to the company issuing a downward revision of its sales forecast for 2026. In contrast, Eli Lilly investors have responded positively to better-than-expected financial results for the fourth quarter and a favorable earnings outlook for the coming fiscal year.
**Novo Nordisk’s Adjusted 2026 Sales Forecast**
Novo Nordisk now expects its 2026 sales, excluding a non-recurring revenue adjustment of $4.2 billion related to the reversal of 340B provisions, to contract by 5% to 13% measured at constant exchange rates (CER). This negative revision is influenced by several factors impacting realized prices, most notably the effects of the "Most Favoured Nations" agreement in the United States market, the expiration of semaglutide molecule patents in certain international markets, and intensifying competition.
Looking back on 2025, the company reported a 10% increase in sales, reaching 309.06 billion Danish kroner (DKK) at CER, alongside a 6% uplift in operating profit to 127.66 billion DKK. These outcomes fell slightly short of prior guidance, which forecasted sales growth of 8% to 11% and operating profit growth ranging from 4% to 7%.
**Eli Lilly’s Positive 2026 Outlook**
In contrast, Eli Lilly has projected robust adjusted earnings for fiscal year 2026 in the band of $33.50 to $35 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $33.23. The biopharmaceutical company anticipates revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, well above Wall Street’s projection of $77.62 billion. The midpoint of this forecast signifies an anticipated revenue growth rate of approximately 25%.
**Performance of Weight Loss Medications**
Examining product-level sales reveals contrasting dynamics. Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic experienced a modest 1% revenue increase to 31.83 billion DKK (about $5.03 billion), while sales of Wegovy, a weight loss drug approved in the U.S. since mid-2021, rose 17% to 21.86 billion DKK (around $3.46 billion). Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro more than doubled revenue, reaching $7.4 billion, and its Zepbound product demonstrated a striking 122% revenue increase to $4.2 billion in the U.S. in 2025.
**Stock Market Performance and Business Pipeline**
Over a 12-month span, Novo Nordisk’s stock value has decreased approximately 42%, whereas Eli Lilly’s shares have risen about 34%, according to market data. Novo Nordisk’s product development pipeline primarily includes insulin therapies, cardiology treatments, and weight management drugs, focusing heavily on managing chronic conditions.
Conversely, Eli Lilly’s pipeline spans a broader array of therapeutic areas such as oncology, obesity, Alzheimer’s disease, arthritis, psoriasis, allergic rhinitis, gastric disorders, and dermatology. This diversified portfolio could provide Eli Lilly a more resilient platform for sustained growth.
**Advertising and Market Competition Insights**
Data indicates that Novo Nordisk intensified its U.S. promotional expenditures on Wegovy and Ozempic in 2025. Despite substantial marketing efforts, Novo Nordisk has faced challenges competing against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which has overtaken Wegovy in the number of new weekly prescriptions within the same year. The competition for market share in the obesity and diabetes treatment segments has intensified markedly.
**Recent Price Movements**
As of the latest trading session, Novo Nordisk’s shares closed down 5.85% at $47.35, reflecting investor concerns following the guidance update. In contrast, Eli Lilly’s stock advanced 9.56%, closing at $1,099.38, fueled by optimistic earnings projections and strong product performance.
**Summary**
The divergent trajectories in guidance and market performance reveal an ongoing shift in the competitive landscape between these two pharmaceutical giants. Eli Lilly’s upbeat financial outlook and expanding drug portfolio, particularly in obesity medication, have positioned it favorably relative to Novo Nordisk, which is navigating pricing pressures and patent expirations impacting its signature drugs. The weight loss drug category remains highly dynamic, with both companies investing heavily in marketing and innovation to secure leadership in this lucrative sector.
**Novo Nordisk’s Adjusted 2026 Sales Forecast**
Novo Nordisk now expects its 2026 sales, excluding a non-recurring revenue adjustment of $4.2 billion related to the reversal of 340B provisions, to contract by 5% to 13% measured at constant exchange rates (CER). This negative revision is influenced by several factors impacting realized prices, most notably the effects of the "Most Favoured Nations" agreement in the United States market, the expiration of semaglutide molecule patents in certain international markets, and intensifying competition.
Looking back on 2025, the company reported a 10% increase in sales, reaching 309.06 billion Danish kroner (DKK) at CER, alongside a 6% uplift in operating profit to 127.66 billion DKK. These outcomes fell slightly short of prior guidance, which forecasted sales growth of 8% to 11% and operating profit growth ranging from 4% to 7%.
**Eli Lilly’s Positive 2026 Outlook**
In contrast, Eli Lilly has projected robust adjusted earnings for fiscal year 2026 in the band of $33.50 to $35 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $33.23. The biopharmaceutical company anticipates revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, well above Wall Street’s projection of $77.62 billion. The midpoint of this forecast signifies an anticipated revenue growth rate of approximately 25%.
**Performance of Weight Loss Medications**
Examining product-level sales reveals contrasting dynamics. Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic experienced a modest 1% revenue increase to 31.83 billion DKK (about $5.03 billion), while sales of Wegovy, a weight loss drug approved in the U.S. since mid-2021, rose 17% to 21.86 billion DKK (around $3.46 billion). Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro more than doubled revenue, reaching $7.4 billion, and its Zepbound product demonstrated a striking 122% revenue increase to $4.2 billion in the U.S. in 2025.
**Stock Market Performance and Business Pipeline**
Over a 12-month span, Novo Nordisk’s stock value has decreased approximately 42%, whereas Eli Lilly’s shares have risen about 34%, according to market data. Novo Nordisk’s product development pipeline primarily includes insulin therapies, cardiology treatments, and weight management drugs, focusing heavily on managing chronic conditions.
Conversely, Eli Lilly’s pipeline spans a broader array of therapeutic areas such as oncology, obesity, Alzheimer’s disease, arthritis, psoriasis, allergic rhinitis, gastric disorders, and dermatology. This diversified portfolio could provide Eli Lilly a more resilient platform for sustained growth.
**Advertising and Market Competition Insights**
Data indicates that Novo Nordisk intensified its U.S. promotional expenditures on Wegovy and Ozempic in 2025. Despite substantial marketing efforts, Novo Nordisk has faced challenges competing against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which has overtaken Wegovy in the number of new weekly prescriptions within the same year. The competition for market share in the obesity and diabetes treatment segments has intensified markedly.
**Recent Price Movements**
As of the latest trading session, Novo Nordisk’s shares closed down 5.85% at $47.35, reflecting investor concerns following the guidance update. In contrast, Eli Lilly’s stock advanced 9.56%, closing at $1,099.38, fueled by optimistic earnings projections and strong product performance.
**Summary**
The divergent trajectories in guidance and market performance reveal an ongoing shift in the competitive landscape between these two pharmaceutical giants. Eli Lilly’s upbeat financial outlook and expanding drug portfolio, particularly in obesity medication, have positioned it favorably relative to Novo Nordisk, which is navigating pricing pressures and patent expirations impacting its signature drugs. The weight loss drug category remains highly dynamic, with both companies investing heavily in marketing and innovation to secure leadership in this lucrative sector.