February 4, 2026
Finance

Eli Lilly Projects Robust Growth into 2026 Fueled by Surge in Weight Loss Drug Sales

Strong Q4 Performance and Expansion Plans Highlight Eli Lilly's Optimistic Outlook

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Summary

Eli Lilly and Co. posted stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings driven by significant sales growth in its weight loss portfolio, primarily Mounjaro and Zepbound. The company has outlined ambitious fiscal 2026 guidance with earnings and revenue forecasts above consensus estimates. Investment in a new production facility signals commitment to advancing next-generation obesity treatments.

Key Points

Eli Lilly's Q4 adjusted EPS surpassed estimates at $7.54 compared to $6.67 consensus.
Total Q4 sales increased 43% year over year to $19.3 billion, driven by 46% volume growth.
Weight loss drug revenues, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, reached $13.8 billion in Q4 2025.
Company plans over $3.5 billion investment in a new Pennsylvania manufacturing facility for next-generation obesity therapies, including retatrutide.

Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY) reported a powerful finish to its 2025 fiscal year, exceeding Wall Street expectations in the fourth quarter and setting the stage for ambitious growth in 2026. The company’s recent financial disclosure revealed better-than-anticipated earnings and sales, fueled by robust demand for its weight loss medications, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound.

In the fourth quarter, Lilly recorded adjusted earnings per share of $7.54, surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.67. Total sales reached $19.3 billion, outpacing expectations by a significant margin as analysts had forecast $17.96 billion. This represented a 43% year-over-year increase in sales, predominantly driven by a notable 46% gain in volume. Offset partially by a 5% decline in realized prices, the sales surge underscored the growing market acceptance of Lilly’s key product offerings.

The company’s gross profit expanded to $15.9 billion, marking a 43% increase compared to the prior year. Gross margin improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 82.5%, a reflection of favorable product mix dynamics and efficiencies in production cost, even as the impact of reduced prices moderated margin gains.

Central to Lilly’s strong performance were its weight loss medications, which collectively generated $13.8 billion in revenue during Q4 2025. Mounjaro led this segment with revenues soaring 110% to $7.4 billion. Within the United States, Mounjaro sales accounted for $4.1 billion, growing 57% on the back of substantial demand. Sales outside the U.S. showed particularly rapid growth, climbing to $3.3 billion from $899 million the previous year, driven largely by volume increases.

Alongside Mounjaro, Zepbound U.S. revenue rose sharply by 122% to $4.2 billion. This spike in sales was primarily supported by expanding demand, though tempered slightly by lower realized prices. Beyond the obesity drug portfolio, Lilly’s breast cancer therapy Verzenio saw revenues increase by 3% to $1.6 billion, underscoring steady volume growth in oncology offerings.

In a strategic move to support future demand and product innovation, Eli Lilly announced plans to invest over $3.5 billion to establish a new injectable medicine and device manufacturing facility in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania. This site is intended to become Lilly’s latest production hub, specifically targeting next-generation weight loss therapies. The plant will produce retatrutide, an investigational compound that acts as a triple hormone receptor agonist involving GIP, GLP-1, and glucagon mechanisms, highlighting Lilly’s commitment to advancing its obesity treatment pipeline.

Looking ahead, Eli Lilly has issued fiscal 2026 guidance projecting adjusted earnings per share between $33.50 and $35.00, positioning itself slightly above Wall Street consensus estimates of $33.23. Revenues for the year are anticipated to range from $80 billion to $83 billion, outpacing the $77.62 billion forecasted by analysts, reflecting strong confidence in the scaling of existing and upcoming therapies.

Following these announcements, Eli Lilly’s stock experienced significant upward momentum, trading 8.85% higher in premarket sessions at $1,092.23. The share price approached a 52-week high of $1,133.95, indicating investor enthusiasm tied to the company’s promising outlook and financial strength.


This robust performance and forward guidance emphasize the critical role that Lilly’s weight loss drugs are playing in driving growth and reshaping its revenue base. The company’s ability to maintain volume growth amid pricing pressures, coupled with strategic capital expenditures in manufacturing infrastructure, positions it well for sustained expansion.

Risks
  • Lower realized prices partially offset volume gains in weight loss drug sales, indicating pricing pressure risks.
  • The success of investigational therapies like retatrutide remains subject to clinical and regulatory uncertainties.
  • Heavy capital investment in new manufacturing facilities may face execution challenges or delays.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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