More than a year into President Donald Trump’s second tenure, the U.S. stock market has experienced considerable upward momentum whereas public opinion toward the president has diminished noticeably entering 2026. Market indices, particularly the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), have seen marked appreciation, contrasting with Trump’s declining approval ratings reported by recent polls.
A prominent economist-backed survey, the Economist/YouGov poll conducted between January 16 and January 19, illustrates this downward trajectory in presidential approval. According to this poll, just 37% of respondents currently approve of Trump’s performance, while 57% disapprove, resulting in a net approval rating of negative 20. This figure represents the lowest net approval during Trump’s second presidential term and stands as the second-lowest rating throughout the time covered by the polling, narrowly better than the November 2017 figure of negative 21.
Republican support appears to be a significant contributor to the recent decline in approval. In the latest poll, only 79% of Republican voters expressed approval for Trump, a decrease from 88% recorded in the previous week, with disapproval among Republicans rising from 11% to 17%. Consequently, the Republican net approval margin has narrowed to +62, the lowest point witnessed in this presidential term.
The poll extended beyond approval ratings and explored voter sentiment on various political and economic issues impacting both the electorate and the broader market, including immigration enforcement policies, recent high-profile incidents, military postures toward specific countries, tariff rulings, and Federal Reserve actions.
Tariffs and Price Perception
Regarding tariffs implemented under the Trump administration, the polling data reveal a widespread perception of increased consumer costs. A significant 69% of those surveyed acknowledged that tariffs placed on various countries have translated into higher prices for consumers. Even among Republican respondents, considered traditionally supportive of Trump's policies, a majority of 54% reported experiencing price hikes linked to tariffs.
The poll also touched upon an impending Supreme Court decision on the legality of these tariffs. Half of the voters anticipate the Court upholding the tariffs, whereas only 18% expect a ruling against them. Despite the anticipated judicial endorsement, a majority amounting to 50% of participants would prefer the Supreme Court to nullify the tariffs, with just 31% favoring their continuation.
Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Preferences
The role of the Federal Reserve and interest rate dynamics remain central concerns for both the public and the investment community amid 2026’s economic conditions. When asked their preference, 48% of survey respondents expressed a desire for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. A smaller segment, 18%, favored maintaining current rates, with a minimal 3% advocating for rate increases.
The inclination toward lower rates differed by party affiliation, with 35% of Democrats supporting rate cuts versus a substantial 65% of Republicans desiring reductions. The poll also gauged public opinion on a Department of Justice investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, revealing divided attitudes. Approval for the investigation stood at 32%, while disapproval measured higher at 38%. Among Republicans, 57% approved of the investigation, but only 14% of Democrats agreed, while Independent respondents largely disapproved or remained undecided.
In terms of entrusting monetary policy direction, respondents favored Powell over Trump, with 44% placing more trust in Powell’s interest rate decisions compared to 18% favoring Trump. Focusing exclusively on those who advocated lower interest rates, Trump’s preference rating improved to 30%, slightly surpassing Powell’s 27%, suggesting nuanced views within this demographic.
Global Military Engagement Sentiment
Voter attitudes towards potential U.S. military involvement in foreign territories showcased considerable opposition. Regarding the possibility of using military force in Greenland, a mere 9% expressed support, contrasted by 72% who opposed such action. The idea of acquiring Greenland by peaceful means garnered moderate support of 29%, although a majority of 51% still opposed this strategy.
Republicans demonstrated a majority in favor of purchasing Greenland (58%), yet support was more limited among Independents (24%) and notably low among Democrats (5%). The proposition of military intervention in Venezuela also met resistance, with 54% opposing military engagement. Moreover, only 25% supported the notion of the U.S. extracting oil resources from Venezuela. Plans proposing transitional U.S. administration of Venezuela received even less backing, with just 17% expressing support.
Stock Market Trends Amid Political Uncertainty
Despite the declining popularity of President Trump evidenced by approval ratings, U.S. equity markets have demonstrated resilience and growth. In 2025, during the first year following the inauguration of Trump’s second term, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust appreciated by 15.7%, reaching record highs by late in the year.
Market volatility emerged on a Tuesday triggered by Trump’s déclarations concerning tariffs and his ambitions relating to Greenland's acquisition. This led to significant losses in the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks, which collectively declined in value by $700 billion during that session. However, markets rebounded the following day after Trump shared progress in negotiations related to Greenland, with the SPY gaining 1.2% to reach $685.40. This rebound followed a 1.5% drop on the preceding day, the most substantial single-day loss since November 2025.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump projected a positive outlook for the stock market, suggesting it could potentially double in value within a relatively short timeframe. While strong equity performance has not yet translated into higher presidential approval, survey indications point to concerns such as affordability challenges and foreign policy as more influential factors shaping voter attitudes.
Summary and Outlook
Currently, the juxtaposition of surging market indices alongside a declining presidential approval rating paints a complex picture of the socio-economic landscape. Key policy areas including tariff impacts on consumer prices, Fed interest rate strategies, and international military considerations are notably influential in shaping public sentiment. As the nation progresses through 2026, monitoring these intertwined financial and political dimensions will be critical.