Joby Aviation, recognized for its development of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, has yet to deliver significant returns to its shareholders since going public approximately four years ago. The company entered the public markets by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), initiating trades at a share price of $10.62. Currently, its shares have modestly increased to about $13, indicating limited gains over this period.
During the SPAC process, Joby outlined an optimistic revenue trajectory projecting a swift rise from zero to $131 million in 2024, escalating to $721 million in 2025 and reaching $2.05 billion by 2026. However, actual performance in 2024 diverged sharply from these forecasts, with revenue totaling only $136,000 derived from a contract with the U.S. Air Force and bearing a net loss of $608 million. This shortfall highlights the challenges inherent in transitioning from conceptual projections to operational reality within an emerging technology sector.
Despite these early setbacks, Joby retains a notable advantage as an early entrant in the nascent eVTOL market segment. The potential expansion of this market over the coming decades positions the company favorably should its aircraft supplant traditional helicopters in various applications, possibly delivering investors substantial returns over the long term.
Product Differentiation and Competitive Positioning
Central to Joby's product lineup is the S4 eVTOL aircraft, engineered to accommodate one pilot and four passengers. This model offers a flight range of up to 150 miles per charge and achieves a maximum speed of 200 miles per hour. An additional development under Joby's portfolio is a hydrogen-powered variant designed to enable faster charging and extend range capabilities approximately fivefold. The company currently maintains a test fleet comprising five aircraft, including the hydrogen prototype.
In comparison, Archer Aviation's Midnight model, a direct competitor, also carries five occupants but presents a lower operational range of approximately 100 miles and a reduced top speed of 150 miles per hour. The superior speed and energy efficiency of the S4 are attributed to its tilt-rotor propeller design, which alternates between lift and cruise modes. Conversely, the Midnight employs separate propellers for lifting and cruising, contributing to increased weight and lower energy efficiency.
Contracts, Partnerships, and Market Expansion
Joby has secured a $131 million contract from the U.S. Department of Defense to deliver up to nine eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force. To date, two aircraft have been delivered under this agreement. Additionally, Joby has deployed a test aircraft in Dubai in anticipation of beginning air taxi services in 2026. The company has also escalated its test flight programs across various geographies including the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, and Japan.
The business model remains in an early stage, yet Joby has attracted substantial investment from influential industry players such as Toyota and Delta Air Lines. Further strengthening its positioning, Joby expanded its service offerings through acquisition of Uber's Elevate aerial ride-hailing segment in 2020 and Blade's passenger helicopter service in August 2025.
These strategic acquisitions underpin Joby's future air taxi services, with plans for integrating the S4 aircraft into Uber’s core application platform. Delta Air Lines has also established collaborations with Uber and Joby to initiate S4 air taxi routes in major urban centers including New York and Los Angeles. The realization of these services is contingent on receiving full certification from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for commercial operations.
Financial Outlook and Market Potential
Joby projects that the FAA will grant comprehensive approval for its initial commercial flights within the United States by 2026, coupled with the commencement of air taxi flights in Dubai during the same period.
Assuming these milestones are achieved, financial analysts forecast revenues of approximately $40 million in 2025, increasing to $113 million in 2026, and reaching $207 million by 2027. With a current market capitalization around $12.7 billion, the company trades at a high multiple, roughly 61 times its anticipated 2027 sales figures, indicating premium valuation relative to near-term revenue.
Longer-term market analyses, such as the Global Market Outlook released by Eve Air Mobility, envisage a proliferation of 30,000 eVTOLs transporting approximately three billion passengers internationally by 2045. This scenario assumes eVTOLs will effectively replace conventional helicopters for short-haul journeys.
Though Joby does not publicly disclose pricing for the S4 aircraft, analyst consensus estimates suggest a unit price of about $1.3 million. Capturing one third of the projected eVTOL market translates to annual sales of approximately 10,000 aircraft, which equates to roughly $13 billion in revenue. Even accounting for potential declines in unit pricing as the industry scales, achieving $10 billion in annual revenue appears feasible.
Under these assumptions, and applying a sales multiple of 13 times, Joby's market valuation could potentially increase tenfold to around $130 billion by 2045. Such growth would hinge upon sustained market dominance and expanding demand for eVTOL technologies.
In sum, while Joby's current standing is speculative and accompanied by high valuation multiples, the company embodies significant long-term growth prospects within the evolving eVTOL transportation sector. Potential investors should weigh the considerable upside possibilities against operational challenges and regulatory uncertainties inherent in this developing industry.
During the SPAC process, Joby outlined an optimistic revenue trajectory projecting a swift rise from zero to $131 million in 2024, escalating to $721 million in 2025 and reaching $2.05 billion by 2026. However, actual performance in 2024 diverged sharply from these forecasts, with revenue totaling only $136,000 derived from a contract with the U.S. Air Force and bearing a net loss of $608 million. This shortfall highlights the challenges inherent in transitioning from conceptual projections to operational reality within an emerging technology sector.
Despite these early setbacks, Joby retains a notable advantage as an early entrant in the nascent eVTOL market segment. The potential expansion of this market over the coming decades positions the company favorably should its aircraft supplant traditional helicopters in various applications, possibly delivering investors substantial returns over the long term.
Product Differentiation and Competitive Positioning
Central to Joby's product lineup is the S4 eVTOL aircraft, engineered to accommodate one pilot and four passengers. This model offers a flight range of up to 150 miles per charge and achieves a maximum speed of 200 miles per hour. An additional development under Joby's portfolio is a hydrogen-powered variant designed to enable faster charging and extend range capabilities approximately fivefold. The company currently maintains a test fleet comprising five aircraft, including the hydrogen prototype.
In comparison, Archer Aviation's Midnight model, a direct competitor, also carries five occupants but presents a lower operational range of approximately 100 miles and a reduced top speed of 150 miles per hour. The superior speed and energy efficiency of the S4 are attributed to its tilt-rotor propeller design, which alternates between lift and cruise modes. Conversely, the Midnight employs separate propellers for lifting and cruising, contributing to increased weight and lower energy efficiency.
Contracts, Partnerships, and Market Expansion
Joby has secured a $131 million contract from the U.S. Department of Defense to deliver up to nine eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force. To date, two aircraft have been delivered under this agreement. Additionally, Joby has deployed a test aircraft in Dubai in anticipation of beginning air taxi services in 2026. The company has also escalated its test flight programs across various geographies including the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, and Japan.
The business model remains in an early stage, yet Joby has attracted substantial investment from influential industry players such as Toyota and Delta Air Lines. Further strengthening its positioning, Joby expanded its service offerings through acquisition of Uber's Elevate aerial ride-hailing segment in 2020 and Blade's passenger helicopter service in August 2025.
These strategic acquisitions underpin Joby's future air taxi services, with plans for integrating the S4 aircraft into Uber’s core application platform. Delta Air Lines has also established collaborations with Uber and Joby to initiate S4 air taxi routes in major urban centers including New York and Los Angeles. The realization of these services is contingent on receiving full certification from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for commercial operations.
Financial Outlook and Market Potential
Joby projects that the FAA will grant comprehensive approval for its initial commercial flights within the United States by 2026, coupled with the commencement of air taxi flights in Dubai during the same period.
Assuming these milestones are achieved, financial analysts forecast revenues of approximately $40 million in 2025, increasing to $113 million in 2026, and reaching $207 million by 2027. With a current market capitalization around $12.7 billion, the company trades at a high multiple, roughly 61 times its anticipated 2027 sales figures, indicating premium valuation relative to near-term revenue.
Longer-term market analyses, such as the Global Market Outlook released by Eve Air Mobility, envisage a proliferation of 30,000 eVTOLs transporting approximately three billion passengers internationally by 2045. This scenario assumes eVTOLs will effectively replace conventional helicopters for short-haul journeys.
Though Joby does not publicly disclose pricing for the S4 aircraft, analyst consensus estimates suggest a unit price of about $1.3 million. Capturing one third of the projected eVTOL market translates to annual sales of approximately 10,000 aircraft, which equates to roughly $13 billion in revenue. Even accounting for potential declines in unit pricing as the industry scales, achieving $10 billion in annual revenue appears feasible.
Under these assumptions, and applying a sales multiple of 13 times, Joby's market valuation could potentially increase tenfold to around $130 billion by 2045. Such growth would hinge upon sustained market dominance and expanding demand for eVTOL technologies.
In sum, while Joby's current standing is speculative and accompanied by high valuation multiples, the company embodies significant long-term growth prospects within the evolving eVTOL transportation sector. Potential investors should weigh the considerable upside possibilities against operational challenges and regulatory uncertainties inherent in this developing industry.