Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) disclosed on Thursday that fluctuations in the prices of crude oil will likely have a negative effect on its upstream segment's financial performance for the fourth quarter when compared to results from the third quarter. The corporation estimates this price shift could reduce upstream earnings by approximately $800 million to $1.2 billion.
Beyond crude oil, changes in natural gas prices are anticipated to influence upstream results as well, although with a broader possible range, spanning from a $300 million detriment to a $100 million positive effect within the same timeframe.
Examining overall industry margin variations, Exxon Mobil predicts a gain to its Energy Products earnings between $300 million and $700 million. Conversely, its Chemical Products division is expected to experience a contraction in earnings, estimated between $200 million and $400 million in losses. Specialty Products earnings may either remain steady or improve up to $200 million during this period.
Additional financial dynamics are expected from timing impacts, which could suppress upstream earnings by as much as $300 million but also potentially provide a boost of $100 million. Similarly, Energy Products segment earnings could benefit from these timing effects in the range of $100 million to $500 million.
Scheduled maintenance activities stand to affect upstream earnings negatively by roughly $200 million at most but may exert no impact in other cases. The broader set of businesses, including Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products, may face impacts ranging from a $100 million headwind to a $100 million gain due to such maintenance.
Market analysts, as reported by financial data providers, currently anticipate Exxon Mobil to declare adjusted earnings per share of $1.67, alongside consolidated revenues of about $81.43 billion for the fourth quarter.
In broader corporate developments, Exxon Mobil updated its strategic plan extending through 2030. The company forecasts earnings and cash flow increases totaling $5 billion, all without raising capital expenditures. It projects average annual earnings growth of 13 percent through the decade, complemented by double-digit growth in cash flow and accelerated per-share gains, the latter supported by ongoing share repurchase programs.
Further reinforcing its efficiency efforts, Exxon Mobil raised its cumulative structural cost savings target by $2 billion, achieving a new goal of $20 billion. Additionally, the company expects to meet all of its 2030 corporate greenhouse gas emissions intensity objectives by 2026.
During Thursday's premarket trading, Exxon Mobil's shares demonstrated marginal gains, trading up 0.09 percent at $118.60, as per market data.