In the expanding arena of prediction markets, valued at $63.5 billion in volume last year, major fintech companies are charting significantly different courses. Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (NASDAQ:IBKR) and Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) exemplify this divergence, with IBKR emphasizing prediction contracts tied to utilities and weather, while Robinhood has concentrated its efforts on sports betting markets.
During IBKR’s fourth-quarter earnings call, company founder Thomas Peterffy explicitly rejected the notion that Interactive Brokers is pursuing sports betting as a core offering. Instead, he framed IBKR’s focus around temperature contracts designed to help utility companies hedge against fluctuating electricity demand, indicating that institutional clients such as utilities are expected to begin onboarding within the year.
IBKR’s ForecastEx platform demonstrated notable growth, trading 286 million contract pairs in Q4, a significant increase from merely 15 million in the third quarter. The exchange now lists over 10,000 different instruments, highlighting its broad and expanding market reach. This strategy notably allows IBKR to avoid the regulatory entanglements currently befalling prediction markets centered on sports outcomes.
The regulatory environment has proven particularly challenging for sports betting contracts. A recent ruling by a Massachusetts court declared sports contracts offered by Kalshi, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulated exchange, illegal gambling rather than lawful derivatives. Kalshi powers prediction markets for both Robinhood and Webull Corp. (NASDAQ:BULL).
Consequently, Kalshi has been compelled to block residents of Massachusetts from trading these sports contracts. Similarly, states such as Tennessee, Connecticut, and New York have issued regulations demanding gaming licenses for any platform providing sports betting services, notwithstanding prior CFTC approval. This fracturing regulatory landscape poses a serious threat to platforms reliant on sports betting markets by potentially limiting access to key state markets.
Robinhood’s approach stands in stark contrast to IBKR. After launching its prediction markets in March 2025, Robinhood has processed over 11 billion contracts, generating approximately $100 million in annualized revenue. CEO Vlad Tenev noted during the November third-quarter earnings call that the volume in Q3 reached 2.3 billion contracts, with October alone surpassing the entire quarter at 2.5 billion contracts. This volume is predominantly attributed to betting on NFL games, NBA matchups, and college football contests.
Tenev described prediction markets as potentially forming "one of the largest asset classes" and characterized the company’s current position as the beginning of a "prediction market supercycle." However, Robinhood’s dependence on Kalshi to power its prediction market infrastructure inherently exposes it to the same regulatory risks that Kalshi faces, particularly in states that have begun restricting sports betting contracts.
Meanwhile, SoFi Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:SOFI) has not entered the prediction market arena. Slated to release fourth-quarter results on January 30, SoFi's banking charter likely subjects the company to regulatory limitations distinct from those experienced by pure brokerage operators like IBKR or Robinhood. As competitors accrue substantial revenue from prediction markets, analysts may question whether SoFi’s absence is a deliberate strategic choice or a missed growth opportunity.
The forthcoming earnings reports from these key players will provide critical insights into which strategy gains traction:
- SoFi’s Q4 performance (January 30): Investors will observe if the company's management addresses its non-participation in prediction markets amid competitors capitalizing on this segment.
- Robinhood’s Q4 results (February 10): Trading volumes will indicate whether state-level regulatory actions, such as the Massachusetts ruling, are deterring users or if growth persists regardless of legal pressure.
- Webull’s financial update (around February 23): Webull faces similar regulatory exposures to Robinhood owing to its reliance on Kalshi for sports betting contracts.
As the prediction market segment experiences explosive volume growth, increasing by 302% from the prior year, the central question remains whether platforms focused on sports betting can sustain operations across divergent state regulatory landscapes or whether IBKR’s utility-centric model represents a more resilient path forward in this evolving market.