Recent activity on online prediction market platforms reveals a growing trend where bettors are profiting substantially by betting against Elon Musk’s high-profile yet frequently postponed initiatives. Market participants on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have been able to secure returns amounting to tens of thousands of dollars by wagering that certain Musk-promised projects will not come to fruition within the contested timeframes.
Predictions on Musk’s ventures, including the launch of a robotaxi service in California and the establishment of a third political party in the United States, have become focal points for this type of betting. These platforms aggregate real-money forecasts providing a nuanced perspective that often contrasts sharply with Musk’s own public timelines.
For example, as of last Friday, Kalshi’s betting odds assigned only a 14.5% probability that Tesla would introduce the humanoid robot, Optimus, within the current calendar year. This reflects skepticism about meeting the ambitious delivery timelines Musk has previously implied.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s pricing suggested a 68% chance that Tesla would deploy a form of unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology by June 30, a shorter horizon than Musk's earlier 2025 target. Interestingly, Kalshi presented a conflicting market view just a day prior, showing 100% odds for Tesla removing human safety monitors from robotaxi operations in Texas immediately — a move Musk announced personally.
Individual bettors have also demonstrated strong conviction in betting against Musk’s political claims. David Bensoussan, a participant on Polymarket, risked nearly $10,000 wagering against Musk's assertion that he would start a new political party amid disagreements with former President Donald Trump. When this political move did not materialize, Bensoussan achieved a 10% return on his wager.
Such outcomes underscore a dynamic where Musk’s reputation for occasionally unfulfilled assurances is now being tested against real-time financial incentives and community scrutiny within prediction markets, which have seen growing user interest and volume since early 2024. Despite these realities, Musk’s considerable fan base and influence maintain strong engagement across these marketplaces.
Bensoussan himself has been an active participant, placing bets on twelve distinct Musk- or Tesla-related prediction markets and accruing more than $36,000 on resolved wagers. His activity exemplifies the informed speculation that these platforms facilitate, with users leveraging public data and recent announcements to evaluate project viability.
Adding to the ecosystem, Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI, maintains integrations with both Kalshi and Polymarket, further cementing the close relationship between his endeavors and the markets tracking them. At any given time, dozens of Musk-related topics are featured, drawing far more attention than content related to other public figures.
The uptick in prediction market interest is partly attributable to regulatory developments. A federal appeals court ruling in 2024 explicitly permitted the creation and trading of “event contracts,” legally enabling betting on occurrences like election results and facilitating the expanded scope of these markets.
While these platforms provide a unique, real-time forecasting mechanism reflecting collective market judgment, the contrasting odds between different initiatives and platforms highlight underlying uncertainties. Musk's projects, distinctively ambitious and forward-looking, remain subject to complex execution risks despite their substantial hype and initial commitments.
Market observers emphasize that despite enthusiasm among supporters, the cautious odds assigned on key projects suggest participants recognize the challenges in meeting the bold deadlines Musk often sets. This divergence between optimistic announcements and prudent betting patterns offers insight into how capital markets engage with high-risk technological and political ventures today.