Recent shifts in prediction market dynamics underscore a growing belief among speculative investors that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, may relinquish or be forced out of power within the year. Data from a prominent decentralized betting platform indicates a sharp upward trend in odds assessing a leadership change by the first half of the year.
Specifically, the probability of Khamenei’s removal rose to 36%, a noteworthy increase from 28% the day prior and 21% just a week earlier. When looking at a closer checkpoint, the chance of his losing power by March 31 holds at 25%, although prospects for this happening before the conclusion of the current month remain relatively lower, at 12%. These probabilities have incited wagers exceeding $1 million on this eventuality.
The market contract in question resolves affirmatively if Khamenei resigns, is detained, or otherwise vacates his role as Supreme Leader. The platform, which operates atop the Polygon blockchain network, includes a disclaimer reflecting consultations with individuals directly impacted by recent violent events, acknowledging the unique informational role that prediction markets can play beyond conventional media channels.
The heightened market speculation aligns with a backdrop of intensifying anti-government demonstrations unfolding across Iran. These protests are primarily fueled by widespread dissatisfaction with the deteriorating national economy characterized by a plummeting currency value and soaring inflationary pressures.
Recent humanitarian reports, including one from a U.S.-based nonprofit monitoring human rights violations, indicate a death toll of at least 36 civilians during the past ten days amid nationwide protests. Official Iranian sources have yet to disclose numbers pertaining to civilian casualties but have confirmed incidents involving deaths among security forces.
Complicating the unrest are reports asserting that protesters have temporarily seized control in multiple western cities, including Abdanan and Malekshahi, located in Ilam province. Iranian state media, however, portrays the situation as stabilized, describing current conditions as “completely normalized.”
The economic strain is underscored by the Iranian Rial’s record depreciation, with the currency trading at approximately 1.47 million rials per U.S. dollar in unofficial markets. Last year, Iranian legislators approved a monetary reform set to remove four zeros from the currency in an attempt to address stability concerns.
On the geopolitical front, former U.S. President Donald Trump issued a declaration last week assuring the United States would intervene in support of Iranian protesters should the regime employ violent repression. Iran has responded by warning that any form of American involvement would risk destabilizing the broader Middle Eastern region.
The intersection of internal economic distress, social upheaval, and international political statements contributes to the multifaceted uncertainty surrounding Iran’s political future and Khamenei’s leadership tenure.