January 26, 2026
Finance

JPMorgan Projects Significant Upside for Apple With Strong iPhone Demand Ahead of Q1 Earnings

Despite Headwinds from Memory Costs and Services Growth, Apple Positioned for Earnings Beat

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Summary

JPMorgan Chase has increased its price target for Apple to $315, anticipating robust demand for the upcoming iPhone 17 and a reduction in operating expenses. The firm forecasts a 27% potential upside from Apple's current stock level despite challenges such as higher memory costs and slightly slower App Store growth. Other analysts also predict a strong first-quarter performance supported by solid iPhone sales and sustained growth in services.

Key Points

JPMorgan raised Apple's price target from $305 to $315, citing strong iPhone 17 demand and operating expense reductions as key factors.
The bank forecasts a potential 27% upside from Apple's current stock price despite investor concerns over rising memory costs and slower App Store growth.
Bank of America expects record-breaking first-quarter revenue driven by 85 million iPhone units sold and strong services growth.
Apple is renewing its chip supply partnership with Intel for non-Pro iPhone models, indicating a shift in supply chain strategy.
In advance of Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) release of first-quarter fiscal earnings, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has revised its price target upward, signaling growing confidence in the company's near-term financial performance. JPMorgan’s analyst, Samik Chatterjee, raised the price target for Apple to $315 from the prior $305 and maintained an overweight rating on the stock. This adjustment reflects expectations of better-than-anticipated consumer demand for the iPhone and a streamlined operating expense profile that may contribute to earnings and revenue results exceeding consensus projections.

Chatterjee’s outlook highlights a series of favorable factors which could drive significant gains for Apple's shares, estimating a potential rise of approximately 27% relative to the current stock price. This assessment comes despite certain concerns that have weighed on investor sentiment, including inflationary pressures leading to higher memory component costs, apprehensions over possible pricing sensitivity affecting consumer demand, and a modest slowdown in App Store service growth.

While Apple's recent share price performance has not met expectations, JPMorgan views the current valuation as an opportune entry point for investors, emphasizing confidence in the company’s product pipeline and operational efficiency. Of particular focus is the anticipated demand for the upcoming iPhone 17, which Chatterjee believes will be a key driver to strengthening Apple's financial results in the near term.

According to JPMorgan’s estimates, Apple is projected to exceed first-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts when it reports earnings on January 29. The Services segment, which includes revenue from the App Store and other digital content offerings, is forecasted to grow at a year-over-year rate of 7%, a figure below Apple’s own 14% guidance. However, Chatterjee notes that Apple benefits from a diversified portfolio of growth drivers beyond just its App Store, supporting the potential for robust overall performance.

Supporting this optimistic view, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan has similarly anticipated record-breaking first-quarter results despite the pressures from higher memory costs. Mohan forecasts revenue beats driven primarily by strong iPhone sales coupled with double-digit growth in services. His analysis estimates that Apple sold approximately 85 million iPhones during the quarter, reflecting resilient consumer demand. Furthermore, Mohan has raised his forecasts for the second quarter, citing sustained momentum for the iPhone 17.

Projected iPhone revenue growth is expected to reach 17% year over year, marking one of the company’s most successful quarters historically. This robust performance underscores the importance of the iPhone segment as a critical revenue driver, which could offset challenges in other areas.

In a notable development affecting Apple's supply chain strategy, the company is reportedly revitalizing its chip supply agreement with Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) for its non-Pro models of the iPhone. This move is viewed as significant within the technology sector, potentially influencing Apple’s production cost structure and product differentiation strategies moving forward.

As market participants await Apple’s fiscal Q1 report, which is scheduled for release on January 29, various indicators of the company’s equity quality and momentum are documented. Apple ranks in the 90th percentile for quality and the 67th percentile for momentum according to Benzinga’s Edge Rankings, suggesting a strong but moderately variable performance relative to its peers.

Over the trailing twelve-month period, Apple’s stock has appreciated by approximately 7.91%. In the most recent trading session, shares declined marginally by 0.12%, closing near $248.04. This modest pullback occurs against the backdrop of heightened expectations surrounding the company’s forthcoming earnings.

Investors and analysts alike will be closely monitoring Apple’s upcoming earnings announcement to assess the validity of the optimistic projections for both product sales and cost management that banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have articulated. The balance between robust iPhone demand and external cost pressures will likely shape the near-term trajectory of the stock.
Risks
  • Increasing memory costs may pressure Apple's margins and potentially impact device pricing and consumer demand.
  • Price sensitivity concerns could negatively affect iPhone demand despite anticipated strong sales.
  • Services revenue growth is projected below company guidance, indicating potential slowing in Apple's digital services segment.
  • Uncertainties related to supply chain shifts, such as renewed Intel chip supply, may introduce operational challenges or cost variability.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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