February 9, 2026
Finance

Kalshi Emerges as Super Bowl LX Market Leader Amid Mixed Results for Sportsbooks

Seattle Seahawks’ decisive Super Bowl win challenges sportsbooks’ exposure, while Kalshi capitalizes on surging betting volumes

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Summary

Super Bowl LX set the stage for an intense clash between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, drawing massive betting activity worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Kalshi, a prediction market platform, distinguished itself as a key beneficiary by facilitating an estimated $871 million in bets, despite restrictions on NFL advertising. Meanwhile, traditional sportsbooks faced potential setbacks from the Seahawks’ victory, which defied favored expectations and may have unbalanced sportsbooks’ wager distributions. This dynamic highlights evolving contours in sports betting markets amid major sporting events.

Key Points

Kalshi recorded an estimated $871 million in betting volume on Super Bowl Sunday, with around $650 million related specifically to Super Bowl markets, positioning it as a major player despite NFL advertising restrictions.
The Seattle Seahawks’ victory at 29-13, against a -4.5 point spread favoring them, exposed sportsbooks to significant risk due to a heavy bettors’ lean on the Seahawks side.
DraftKings’ sportsbook app ranked fifth in usage on game night and showed a more balanced distribution of wagers between the Seahawks and Patriots, suggesting relatively lower exposure risk compared to other operators.
BetMGM reported 60% of bets placed on the Seahawks, heightening potential financial exposure given the game outcome, highlighting the disparities in sportsbook risk management amidst large betting volumes.

The 60th edition of the Super Bowl, featuring the Seattle Seahawks facing off against the New England Patriots, became a focal point not only for fans but also for a significant surge in betting activity across various platforms. Bank of America analysts have identified Kalshi, a prediction market company, as one of the primary winners of the event in terms of betting volume and user engagement, while expressing concerns regarding sportsbooks’ exposure due to the Seahawks’ unexpected dominance.

Kalshi, despite being constrained by the National Football League’s advertising restrictions that prevented it from running commercials during the Super Bowl, nonetheless attracted substantial betting interest. According to Bank of America’s estimates, Kalshi’s platform processed approximately $871 million in bet volume on game day, with around $650 million specifically wagered on Super Bowl-related markets. This betting surge was reflected in the app’s performance, which achieved the distinction of ranking second in user engagement on the night of the game.

The analysts also noted that Kalshi and its competitor Polymarket offered higher payout rates on bets related to the Seahawks’ victory compared to those available through conventional online sportsbooks. This factor may have attracted bettors seeking more favorable returns. However, the increased volume did present operational challenges for Kalshi, such as delays in processing payments, an issue carefully observed by the Bank of America team.

To enhance the betting experience during the game, Kalshi introduced new features including a real-time play-by-play feed launched Sunday morning and live statistical updates tailored to the Super Bowl context. These tools likely contributed to fostering continuous bettor engagement and expanding the platform’s appeal amidst intense competition.

On the other side of the market, the Seahawks secured a commanding 29-13 victory, comfortably covering the -4.5 point spread favored by most sportsbooks. This outcome garnered heavy betting activity favoring the Seahawks, creating an unusual situation where sportsbooks may have been overexposed to the winning side. The implication, according to Bank of America, is that some bookmakers might have preferred a New England upset to balance their risk portfolios.

DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ: DKNG) stood out as a major sportsbook participant, with its app ranking fifth in usage on game night, signaling a possible leadership position in overall sports betting volume. The company’s Boston headquarters geographically aligns with the Patriots’ fan base, and Bank of America’s analysis suggests a more balanced distribution of wagers between the Seahawks and the Patriots on DraftKings’ platform. This balanced betting split could mitigate DraftKings’ risk and position it as a potential beneficiary of the game’s betting dynamics.

Other sportsbooks reported heavier concentrations of bets on the Seahawks outcome. For example, BetMGM, a joint venture between Entain and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), saw approximately 60% of its wagers backing the Seattle team, which may have increased its risk exposure given the decisive Seahawks win.

The analysis also highlighted how prop bets, particularly on rushing and receiving statistics, largely paid off for bettors, whereas many wagers on anytime touchdown scorers did not materialize. This mixed result among prop bets may have balanced overall sportsbook liabilities.

From a broader perspective, the American Gaming Association reported that total legal sportsbook wagering for Super Bowl LX reached an estimated $1.76 billion, reflecting the immense scale and economic impact of the event within regulated betting markets.


This comprehensive view of Super Bowl LX betting trends underscores some shifting dynamics in how bettors interact with different platforms. Kalshi’s rapid ascension in betting volume and engagement demonstrates the growing prominence of prediction market companies even without direct NFL advertising. At the same time, traditional sportsbooks are reminded of the volatility inherent in large-scale sporting events and the importance of managing risk exposure effectively across diverse betting markets.

Risks
  • Kalshi experienced delayed payment processing due to increased betting volumes, potentially impacting user satisfaction and operational efficiency.
  • Sportsbooks with disproportionate wager concentrations on the Seahawks, such as BetMGM, faced elevated financial exposure from the winning outcome, emphasizing balance in betting volumes as critical risk control.
  • Heavy betting on specific prop bets, especially those that did not hit like anytime touchdown scorers, can create unpredictable payout liabilities for sportsbooks.
  • Restrictions on advertising for emerging prediction market companies like Kalshi may limit marketing opportunities despite high betting volumes, posing a growth challenge.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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