January 22, 2026
Finance

Knight-Swift Transportation’s Q4 Earnings Undershoot Estimates Prompt Analyst Price Target Adjustments

Post-earnings revisions reflect tempered expectations despite steady share performance

Summary

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. disclosed fourth-quarter results that fell short of analyst forecasts, prompting select revisions to price targets by prominent financial analysts. The company’s quarterly earnings per share (EPS) and revenue both underperformed relative to consensus estimates. Forecasts for the first quarter’s adjusted EPS indicate a range slightly below market predictions. Despite these outcomes, the company’s stock exhibited marginal gains following the earnings release.

Key Points

Knight-Swift’s fourth quarter earnings per share stood at 31 cents, missing the analyst consensus of 36 cents.
The company recorded $1.856 billion in quarterly sales, below the expected $1.900 billion figure.
First-quarter adjusted earnings guidance ranges from 28 to 32 cents per share, slightly under market consensus of 32 cents.
Analysts adjusted price targets for Knight-Swift post-earnings: Stifel lowered target; Susquehanna and UBS raised targets but maintained Neutral ratings.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE: KNX), a leading player in the transportation sector, revealed its financial performance for the fourth quarter, which did not meet the anticipated analyst benchmarks, stirring careful reassessment among financial experts covering the stock.

The corporation announced quarterly earnings amounting to 31 cents per share, a figure that lagged behind the collective analyst prediction of 36 cents per share.

Additionally, revenue for the quarter reached $1.856 billion, falling short of the $1.900 billion forecasted by analysts. These results highlight the company's earnings and sales achieving levels that are below market expectations, indicating possible challenges in operating conditions or market dynamics that might have influenced the company’s revenue generation and profitability.

Looking ahead, Knight-Swift projected its adjusted earnings per share for the upcoming first quarter to range from 28 cents to 32 cents, which lies just below the analysts’ estimated figure of 32 cents per share. This guidance implies moderated confidence in short-term profitability improvement.

Despite these earnings misses and conservative guidance, the stock price of Knight-Swift saw a minor uptick of 0.1%, closing at $57.99 in trading the day following the earnings announcement, reflecting a measured investor response.

In the wake of the financial disclosures, industry analysts have revisited their valuation assessments and recommendations on Knight-Swift’s stock.

J. Bruce Chan of Stifel upheld his Buy rating on Knight-Swift shares but revised the price target downward from $63 to $61. This adjustment indicates maintained confidence in the stock's long-term prospects albeit with tempered price expectations in light of recent performance.

Meanwhile, Susquehanna analyst Bascome Majors retained a Neutral stance but increased the price target from $58 to $60, suggesting a cautiously optimistic view of the company’s valuation relative to recent earnings.

Similarly, Thomas Wadewitz from UBS continued to hold a Neutral rating towards the Knight-Swift stock and adjusted the price target upward from $51 to $54. This revision points towards a slightly improved outlook, despite acknowledging the challenges highlighted by the earnings report.

The mixed revisions among analysts underscore a complex landscape where operational realities are being balanced against longer-term strategic considerations and market positioning.

Overall, Knight-Swift’s recent financial disclosures have triggered a reevaluation of the company’s near-term earnings power and market valuation, which is reflected in the adjustments made by several financial analysts, while investor response has remained relatively steady, as evidenced by the stock’s modest price movement.

Risks
  • Earnings and revenue fell short of consensus estimates, indicating potential operational or market challenges.
  • First-quarter earnings guidance is on the lower side compared to market expectations, reflecting uncertainty in near-term profitability.
  • Price target revisions reflect divergent analyst views, highlighting an uncertain outlook for the stock’s valuation.
  • Modest stock price response suggests market hesitancy amid mixed signals from earnings and guidance.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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