Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) released its fourth-quarter financial results on Thursday, showcasing performance that exceeded consensus expectations on both revenue and earnings fronts. The company recorded net revenues of $8.81 billion for the quarter, reflecting an 18% increase compared to the same period last year. When adjusting for currency fluctuations, revenue growth measured at 15% year-over-year, slightly surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $8.79 billion.
Additionally, Mastercard reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.76 for the quarter, a significant 25% increase from the previous year’s figure. This adjusted EPS also outpaced the analysts’ forecast, which had anticipated $4.25 per share.
Looking ahead, Mastercard provided guidance indicating expectations for net revenue growth in the low teens for the first quarter of the current fiscal year. This projection stands above analyst estimates, which forecasted net revenues around $8.3 billion. For the entire fiscal year 2026, the company projects revenue growth towards the higher end of the low double-digit range, compared to a consensus estimate of $36.8 billion by analysts.
Despite posting stronger results and issuing positive growth guidance, Mastercard’s stock experienced a modest decline following the earnings announcement. Shares fell by 1.3%, trading at $536.16 on the day after the report.
In light of these results, market analysts have updated their target prices for Mastercard’s shares, reflecting differing evaluations of the company’s future outlook. John Davis from Raymond James kept an Outperform rating on Mastercard's stock but revised his price target downward from $707 to $631. The adjustment indicates tempered expectations relative to prior optimistic projections.
Conversely, Jason Kupferberg at Wells Fargo maintained his Overweight rating on Mastercard, signaling confidence in the stock's potential to outperform the broader market. Kupferberg increased his price target slightly, from $660 to $668, reflecting a cautiously positive stance on the company’s prospects moving forward.
These divergent analyst responses underscore the nuanced interpretations of Mastercard’s quarterly performance and guidance. While the firm’s revenue and earnings beat consensus, the reduced outlook in some analyst targets may consider factors not explicitly detailed in the company’s announcement.
Investors evaluating Mastercard should consider both the solid recent financial results and the varied analyst perspectives on the company’s future trajectory, alongside the modest decline in share price immediately following the earnings release.