January 23, 2026
Finance

Mobileye Global Revises Growth Prospects Amid Weaker Q4 Results

Despite Revenue Beat, Supply Constraints Weigh on Output and Prompt Analyst Price Target Downgrades

Summary

Mobileye Global Inc. reported its fiscal fourth-quarter results revealing a 9% decline in revenue year-over-year, impacted primarily by an 11% decrease in EyeQ volumes attributed to supply-demand imbalances. While adjusted earnings per share met market expectations, inventory constraints at Tier 1 suppliers highlighted operational challenges. The company projects fiscal 2026 revenue between $1.90 billion and $1.98 billion, slightly above analyst consensus. Following these disclosures, several analysts have lowered their price targets, reflecting tempered near-term growth optimism.

Key Points

Mobileye reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $446 million, 9% below last year yet above analyst estimates of $432.329 million.
EyeQ chip volumes decreased 11% due to supply-demand imbalances, causing tighter inventory among Tier 1 customers approaching fiscal 2025.
Adjusted earnings per share of 6 cents met analyst expectations, despite underlying volume shortfalls.
Management projects fiscal 2026 revenue to be between $1.90 billion and $1.98 billion, slightly above consensus estimates, reflecting cautious optimism.

Mobileye Global Incorporated (NASDAQ: MBLY), a leading technology firm specializing in artificial intelligence-driven automotive solutions, released its fiscal fourth-quarter financial results on Thursday, signaling notable operational headwinds despite exceeding revenue expectations.

The company achieved quarterly revenue of $446 million, representing a 9% reduction compared to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year. This revenue figure surpassed analyst projections, which had anticipated $432.329 million. The decrease in sales volume stemmed primarily from an 11% drop in EyeQ chipset shipments within the quarter, a decline attributed to supply-demand disequilibrium that generated tighter inventories within Mobileye's Tier 1 customers as they approached fiscal year 2025.

Adjusted earnings per share reached 6 cents, aligning precisely with consensus forecasts. This result suggests operational profitability was maintained despite the volume and revenue pressures.

CEO Professor Amnon Shashua articulated the company’s strategic vision to establish leadership in Physical AI applications, spanning autonomous vehicles and humanoid robotics. Shashua emphasized that Mobileye's automotive development trajectory is positioned to capitalize on increasing demand for economical, single-ECU hands-free systems in mass-market vehicles, alongside the advancement of self-driving capabilities for commercial robotaxi operations.

Looking forward, Mobileye projected that revenues for fiscal year 2026 would range between $1.90 billion and $1.98 billion. This forecast slightly exceeds the prevailing analyst consensus estimate of $1.881 billion, indicating management's cautious optimism despite current supply disruptions.

In response to the earnings announcement, market reaction was negative, with shares declining 5.4%, closing at $9.94 on Friday. In concurrence with the adjusted outlook, several equity analysts revised their price targets downward while maintaining their respective ratings.

Needham's analyst N. Quinn Bolton continued to recommend Mobileye shares with a Buy rating; however, the price target was lowered from $18 to $16 to reflect revised growth expectations.

Similarly, George Gianarikas of Canaccord Genuity upheld a Buy recommendation but cut the price target significantly from $30 to $24, signaling tempered enthusiasm for near-term valuation expansion.

RBC Capital’s Tom Narayan retained a Sector Perform rating on the stock, adjusting the price target downwards from $14 to $13, indicative of a more cautious stance amid operational challenges.

These analyst revisions illustrate the balance between Mobileye’s technological potential and the current market risks related to supply chain and inventory management issues. The contrast between revenue beat and volume decline, together with mixed sentiments on price targets, underscores investor and analyst uncertainty regarding the progression of Mobileye’s product ecosystem and sales execution.

Overall, Mobileye’s quarterly report reflects an organization navigating supply constraints amid ongoing investment in autonomous technology platforms. Management’s emphasis on Physical AI and its dual focus on consumer vehicle applications and commercial robotaxi services suggest a long-term strategic pathway, although the near-term financials exhibit pressures evidencing the complexity of scaling advanced technology solutions within automotive supply chains and evolving market demands.

Risks
  • Supply-demand imbalances and inventory constraints among Tier 1 customers pose ongoing challenges to volume growth and revenue.
  • Potential volatility in share price as analysts adjust price targets downward amid operational uncertainties.
  • Uncertainty over the pace of adoption for cost-efficient, single-ECU hands-free systems and commercial robotaxi technologies impacting forecast execution.
  • Dependence on successfully leading in Physical AI applications, with technological and market risks inherent to emerging autonomous vehicle and robotics sectors.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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