February 10, 2026
Finance

Monday.com Reports Strong Q4 but Issues Weaker 2026 Outlook Prompting Analyst Price Target Reductions

Despite robust fourth-quarter results, cautious guidance for 2026 leads analysts to lower valuations for Monday.com shares

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Summary

Monday.com delivered better-than-anticipated financial results for Q4, posting a 25% year-over-year revenue increase and adjusted earnings surpassing analyst expectations. However, the company’s subdued revenue and margin guidance for fiscal year 2026 led multiple analysts to reduce their price targets and reassess ratings. Shares dropped modestly in pre-market trading following the announcement.

Key Points

Monday.com reported Q4 revenue of $333.88 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, beating analyst consensus estimates.
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.04 exceeded the expected 92 cents, reflecting strong operational performance in Q4.
The company forecasted Q1 2026 revenue between $338 million and $340 million, below analyst consensus of $342.97 million, and projected adjusted operating margins between 11% and 12%.
Fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance ranged from $1.452 billion to $1.462 billion, also below analysts’ consensus of $1.477 billion, with expected operating margins of 11% to 12%.

Monday.com, listed on NASDAQ under the ticker MNDY, released its fourth-quarter earnings, showcasing solid top-line growth and earnings that outpaced market consensus. The company reported quarterly revenue of $333.88 million, marking a 25% increase compared with the same quarter in the prior year. This figure slightly exceeded the consensus estimate of $329.64 million held by analysts. Furthermore, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.04, outperforming the analyst expectation of 92 cents.

In their commentary following the results, co-founders and co-chief executives Roy Mann and Eran Zinman highlighted the firm’s disciplined operational execution during 2025. They noted revenue expansion of 27% for the full year, paired with an adjusted operating margin of 14%, achievements enabled by enhancements to the company’s product portfolio and significant uptake of its artificial intelligence solutions.

Looking forward, Monday.com provided revenue guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 in the range of $338 million to $340 million. This projection fell short of the consensus analyst estimate of $342.97 million. The company also set an outlook for adjusted operating margins between 11% and 12% for the quarter.

The revenue guidance for the entire fiscal year 2026 was issued between $1.452 billion and $1.462 billion, which contrasts with the higher analyst consensus forecast of $1.477 billion. The adjusted operating margin outlook for 2026 was also tempered to an anticipated 11% to 12% range.

Following the earnings release, Monday.com’s shares experienced a decline in pre-market trading, slipping approximately 1.3% to $76.60. This movement reflects investor caution amid the disparity between the strong recent quarterly performance and the more conservative forward guidance.

In response to the company’s updated outlook and results, several equity research analysts revised their price targets and recommendations:

  • Piper Sandler’s Hannah Rudoff upheld an Overweight rating but reduced the price target from $170 to $100, indicating a tempered growth outlook.
  • Allan Verkhovski of BTIG maintained a Buy rating while adjusting the price target downward from $210 to $135, signifying more cautious expectations.
  • Oppenheimer’s George Iwanyc preserved an Outperform rating but lowered his price target from $200 to $130.
  • Baird’s Rob Oliver moved the stock’s rating from Outperform to Neutral and cut the price target from $175 to $90, reflecting a relative downgrade in sentiment.
  • Michael Funk at Bank of America Securities sustained a Neutral rating and decreased the price target from $157 to $95.

These revisions collectively exhibit a recalibration of investor optimism, influenced primarily by the contrast between Monday.com’s recent operational success and its forward-looking guidance that suggests comparatively modest growth and margin expectations for 2026.

The company’s leadership underscored a strategic focus on expanding its product suite and scaling adoption of its AI capabilities, which has underpinned recent growth momentum. However, the tempered guidance signals caution about the company’s near-term growth trajectory amidst evolving market conditions.

Overall, while Monday.com’s fourth-quarter results affirm robust demand and operational strength, the guidance provided for fiscal 2026 has introduced uncertainties among analysts and investors, prompting valuation revisions and a slight pullback in share price.

Risks
  • The revenue and margin guidance for fiscal year 2026 is weaker than analyst expectations, which may pressure future earnings and valuations.
  • Market reception to lowered guidance resulted in a decline of Monday.com shares in pre-market trading, indicating investor concern.
  • Analyst downgrades and price target cuts reflect uncertainty regarding growth sustainability and margin expansion.
  • Potential volatility in Monday.com’s stock price may continue as investors digest the divergence between past quarterly performance and future outlook.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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