Shares of Nebius Group, a notable player in the AI infrastructure domain, fell sharply last Friday during a widespread retreat in technology equities. This dip comes as part of a broader market movement that has exerted downward pressure across the tech sector, evidenced by the Nasdaq Composite index's decline of 0.85% and the Russell 2000's sharper fall of 1.56% during the same session. Nebius's stock loss fits squarely within this context of sector-wide weakness.
The valuation slide for Nebius follows recent market volatility that has been influenced by several external factors, including geopolitical developments and tariff announcements that have unsettled software and technology shares that are connected with European markets. Notably, on January 20, Nebius shares retracted after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new 10% tariffs slated to commence February 1 targeting various European countries, including the Netherlands, where Nebius is headquartered in Amsterdam. This policy announcement prompted a pullback in stocks linked to those regions.
In the midst of such headwinds, analyst sentiment has varied but tends toward cautious optimism for the midterm horizon. On January 15, Morgan Stanley commenced coverage of Nebius with an equal-weight rating and established a price target of $126 per share. The financial institution highlighted the company's ambitious expansion goals aiming to connect 700 megawatts (MW) of power capacity by 2026 as a core factor in its assessment.
Looking ahead to earnings, investors have their sights set on the report due February 19, which is anticipated to provide further clarity on the company's financial trajectory. The current earnings per share (EPS) estimate reflects a loss of 43 cents, marking an increase from last year's loss of 37 cents per share. Conversely, the revenue forecast projects a substantial year-over-year increase to approximately $240.5 million, up from $37.9 million, indicating significant business scaling despite current profitability challenges.
Beyond Morgan Stanley's recent initiation, other analysts maintain a broadly positive outlook on Nebius shares. Citizens Financial Group assigned a market outperform rating with a price target of $175 set for November 2025, while BWS Financial holds a buy rating, maintaining a target price of $130 as of November 2025. These divergent valuations underscore the varying perspectives on Nebius’ growth horizon and operational execution.
Market metrics provide a mixed view of Nebius's standing relative to its peer group. The Benzinga Edge rankings identify the stock’s value rank at 3.75, suggesting it trades at a premium relative to comparable companies. In contrast, its momentum rank is strong at 96.59, demonstrating that the stock has been outperforming the broader market on momentum metrics up to the point of the recent sell-off.
On the trading day in question, Nebius stock closed down approximately 10.09%, settling at $85.33 according to Benzinga Pro data. This price action reflects investor reactions to the confluence of geopolitical tariff risks and sector-wide technology stock weakness. The downward movement also aligns with broader market sentiment ahead of the anticipated earnings results, where expectations of continued net losses persist alongside strong revenue growth prospects.
In summary, Nebius's stock performance encapsulates the market's balancing act between growth ambition and near-term profitability challenges, set against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties and sectoral pressures impacting technology investments. Stakeholders will be closely monitoring the company's forthcoming earnings report in mid-February to reassess corporate outlook and valuation alignment amidst these dynamics.