Novavax Inc, traded on the NASDAQ under the ticker NVAX, is currently experiencing a significant upswing in its stock performance. This movement correlates with recent public health data pointing to a widespread increase in respiratory illnesses circulating across the United States.
As of early January 2026, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued its latest update on the respiratory illness landscape, noting that activity remains elevated on a national scale. Influenza cases have persisted at high levels and are projected to continue at such elevated rates for a number of upcoming weeks. Similarly, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections have surged in multiple regions, contributing to a rise in emergency department visits and hospital admissions among children aged zero to four years.
Meanwhile, COVID‑19 incidence is currently low, albeit showing signs of increment. Notably, the CDC has classified the 2025-26 influenza season as 'moderately severe' — a designation it has not applied previously within this context. The season's impact includes an estimate of at least 11 million flu-related illnesses, 120,000 hospitalizations, and approximately 5,000 deaths to date. This is an increase relative to prior season metrics, which included 5.3 million illnesses, 63,000 hospitalizations, and 2,700 deaths in a comparable timeframe.
Although some weekly figures have plateaued or slightly decreased, experts attribute this trend primarily to holiday-related disruptions in healthcare-seeking behavior and reporting, rather than a peak and subsequent decline in the flu season. The overall high level of influenza activity continues to drive heightened attention toward companies involved in vaccine development and production.
Within this competitive landscape, Moderna has issued a refined forecast for the upcoming year. The company anticipates generating approximately $1.9 billion in revenue during 2025, while also reducing its projected operating expenses by $200 million. Additionally, Moderna expects to maintain a sizable cash reserve of around $8.1 billion by year-end, providing ample financial flexibility.
Looking forward, Moderna is aiming for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 while continuing to optimize costs. The firm is also positioning itself for significant advances in its product pipeline, with potential first approvals on vaccines targeting influenza and combined influenza/COVID formulations anticipated. Furthermore, critical pivotal clinical trial results are expected across oncology, rare disease, and infectious disease sectors. These developments may extend Moderna's product offerings beyond COVID‑19 and bolster its market position in a year where respiratory illnesses remain a prominent public health priority.
In contrast, Novavax's stock performance exhibits compelling technical characteristics indicative of bullish momentum. The share price is currently trading substantially above key moving averages, with a 24.8% premium over its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 23.9% above its 50-day SMA. These figures typically signal upward price pressure and investor confidence in the short term.
The relative strength index (RSI) for Novavax is presently measured at 64.94, placing it within neutral territory but approaching thresholds commonly interpreted as overbought (above 70). Investors monitoring this indicator should remain vigilant for potential pullbacks if the RSI continues climbing beyond these levels.
Complementary momentum is observed in the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, which currently sits above its signal line. This alignment suggests sustained strength in the stock's upward trajectory.
From a technical analysis standpoint, Novavax's stock features crucial support and resistance levels at $7.50 and $9.00, respectively. Should the stock price approach and exceed the resistance boundary, it could confirm continuation of the prevailing uptrend. Conversely, slipping below the support level might indicate a reversal or loss of momentum.
However, technical caution is warranted due to a recent 'death cross' event that transpired in December, characterized when the 50-day SMA crossed beneath the 200-day SMA. Such an occurrence traditionally foreshadows bearish trends and serves as a warning for traders to be mindful of potential downward movements in stock value.
Over a longer-term horizon, Novavax shares have demonstrated minimal net growth, posting a modest 0.81% increase over the past 12 months. This relatively flat performance contrasts with the recent positive momentum and suggests that any short-term gains should be contextualized within a broader market perspective.
Currently, the stock price rests at 65.1% of its 52-week trading range, positioning it closer to its recent high of $10.64 than its low of $5.01. This indicates some headroom for further appreciation, but investors should weigh this against the likelihood of overbought conditions and associated risks.
At the time of the latest market close, Novavax stock recorded an approximate 16.22% increase, settling around $9.33 as reflected through Benzinga Pro's reporting. This dynamic market activity reflects increased investor interest amidst the ongoing public health context and signals a potentially noteworthy phase for the company in both market and operational terms.