ON Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: ON), headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, is poised to unveil its earnings report for the fourth quarter after the market closes on Monday, February 9. Current projections point to a decrease in both profitability and sales compared to the corresponding period in the prior year.
Analysts have set the consensus estimate for ON Semiconductor's earnings per share (EPS) at 62 cents for the quarter ending December 2025. This marks a notable contraction compared to the EPS of 95 cents reported in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year. Concurrently, revenue expectations are tracked at approximately $1.54 billion, a decline from $1.72 billion recorded twelve months earlier.
Earlier in November, on the 18th, ON Semiconductor announced a substantial share repurchase program, authorizing the buyback of shares worth up to $6 billion over the ensuing three-year period. This strategic move aims to enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of outstanding shares, potentially offsetting some market uncertainties tied to near-term earnings performance.
The stock responded positively to recent sentiments, gaining 3.3% to close at $65.20 in the trading session on Friday preceding the earnings announcement.
Investor interest is heightened as market participants seek insights from the evaluations of prominent analysts with a strong track record of forecast accuracy. An examination of several such analysts reveals a prevailing attitude of cautious optimism or neutrality, alongside recalibrated price targets reflecting the company’s latest circumstances.
Vivek Arya of B of A Securities, possessing an accuracy rating of 82%, maintained a Neutral stance on the stock as of January 21, 2026, simultaneously elevating his price target from $60 to $65. Similarly, Craig Ellis from B. Riley Securities, who has an 83% accuracy rate, upheld a Neutral rating and moderately increased his price target from $54 to $58 on January 20, 2026.
Stifel’s Tore Svanberg also continues to rate ON Semiconductor at Hold, nudging his price target upward from $50 to $60 as of January 16, 2026, with an accuracy record of 81%. Likewise, Christopher Danely of Citigroup, another analyst with an 83% accuracy score, preserved a Neutral rating while raising the price objective from $54 to $66 on January 15, 2026.
In contrast, Piper Sandler’s Harsh Kumar holds an Overweight rating on ON Semiconductor, reflecting slightly more bullish investor sentiment. Kumar, who shares an 83% forecast accuracy, raised his price target from $60 to $65 near the beginning of the year on January 7, 2026.
These moves suggest that while expectations for upcoming earnings results have adjusted downward due to anticipated declines in revenues and profits, confidence in the company’s longer-term outlook or strategic actions such as share buybacks may support investor optimism to a degree.
Market participants and analysts alike will closely monitor the earnings release for concrete data that could validate these forecast revisions and price target adjustments.
Key Points:
- ON Semiconductor is forecasted to report a substantial decline in quarterly earnings per share, from 95 cents a year ago to an expected 62 cents.
- Quarterly revenue is anticipated to slip from $1.72 billion to $1.54 billion, underscoring anticipated softness in sales.
- The company’s board has sanctioned a significant $6 billion share repurchase program spanning three years, signifying management’s intent to strengthen shareholder returns.
- Top analysts with high accuracy ratings have generally maintained Neutral or Hold ratings, with price targets ranging from $58 to $66, suggesting measured confidence in the stock despite near-term headwinds.
Risks and Uncertainties:
- The expected decrease in earnings and revenue presents near-term operational challenges possibly tied to market conditions or demand fluctuations.
- The actual impact and timing of the authorized $6 billion share repurchase program remain uncertain and dependent on market conditions and execution strategy.
- Analyst ratings remain predominantly Neutral or Hold, indicating ongoing caution and lack of consensus on a robust upside in the short term.
- Potential volatility in the semiconductor sector or broader technology markets could affect stock performance and earnings beyond forecasts.