In a notable development signaling a possible departure from convention in the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, Rick Rieder, a senior executive at asset management giant BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK), has gained commanding support in prediction markets as President Donald Trump’s anticipated nominee. This trend reflects a broader interest among traders and market watchers, as well as nuanced considerations about the requirements for the nation’s highest monetary policy position.
According to data from Polymarket, a prominent prediction platform, Rieder currently holds the favored position with an implied probability approximating 55%, a substantial lead over rival candidates. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh follows with odds of around 31%, while sitting Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and former Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett lag behind in single-digit territory. The total trading volume on Polymarket related to this race has approached $250 million, underscoring the intensity and conviction underpinning market bets.
Rick Rieder serves as BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, a role he has held since 2009. In this capacity, he oversees management of an extensive portfolio totaling approximately $2.4 trillion in assets. Reports indicate that President Trump met with Rieder as recently as September 2025 during the process of selecting candidates for the Federal Reserve chairmanship. This direct engagement appears to have contributed to the surge in market sentiment favoring Rieder.
Rieder’s standing as a candidate diverges from typical precedents primarily due to his lack of prior Federal Reserve or government experience. Industry observers suggest that this unconventional attribute might actually work to his advantage by demonstrating Trump’s willingness to prioritize seasoned Wall Street expertise over traditional central banking credentials. The emphasis on market experience reflects an evolving perspective on what qualifications might best serve the Federal Reserve’s leadership.
Prior to these developments, President Trump had publicly discounted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a potential nominee and had instead signaled support for individuals like Warsh or Hassett as probable successors to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term is slated to conclude in May.
The ongoing selection process coincides with intensified scrutiny of Chair Powell, who is currently under investigation by the U.S. Justice Department. This inquiry has provoked significant criticism from economists and former policymakers who view it as a threat to the Federal Reserve’s independence. Janet Yellen, a former Fed Chair, described the probe as "extremely chilling" to central bank autonomy, highlighting the gravity of the situation.
In parallel, economist Justin Wolfers has publicly acknowledged Chair Powell's recent assertive remarks defending the Fed against political encroachment. Wolfers interprets these statements as an unusual, yet necessary, stand to preserve the institution’s autonomy. He cautions that ongoing political interference could unsettle financial markets, destabilize the broader economy, and erode confidence in the Fed’s ability to manage inflation.
Complementing the Polymarket figures, betting odds from Kalshi, another prediction market platform, similarly place Rick Rieder at the forefront, indicating a 52% likelihood of his eventual appointment.
Despite BlackRock's prominence and Rieder’s elevated profile in the chairmanship race, the company’s stock performance shows mixed indicators. According to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings, BlackRock’s stock scores relatively low in value metrics while displaying favorable price trends across short, medium, and long-term horizons, suggesting nuanced market views about the firm’s prospects.
In summary, Rick Rieder’s emergence as the leading candidate to become the Federal Reserve Chair marks a departure from traditional preferences for nominees with existing Federal Reserve or governmental experience. The robust activity in prediction markets mirrors broader market interest and speculation surrounding this pivotal appointment, set against a backdrop of institutional scrutiny and political considerations influencing the central bank’s future direction.