Rocket Lab Corp (NASDAQ:RKLB) shares have exhibited significant strength in the trading session on Friday, primarily influenced by Morgan Stanley's decision to upgrade the stock from an Equal-Weight to an Overweight rating. Alongside this rating change, the brokerage firm also raised its price target substantially from $67 to $105, reflecting increased confidence in the company's future prospects.
This positive market momentum follows a contrasting session on Thursday, when the stock faced pressure after a downgrade by Keybanc, which shifted its rating from Overweight to Sector Weight, citing limited upside potential. Understanding these differing viewpoints provides insight into the current dynamics surrounding Rocket Lab's valuation and growth expectations.
Analyzing Keybanc's Assessment and Its Implications
Keybanc analyst Michael Leshock's adjustment to Sector Weight reflects a more cautious outlook, emphasizing that the growth catalysts for Rocket Lab may already be embedded in its share price. Notwithstanding this, Keybanc acknowledges Rocket Lab as one of the premier companies in the space sector, highlighting significant recent achievements such as the award of an $816 million contract and the inauguration of a new launch pad facility.
Further supporting the company's profile are incremental developments across the space industry, including reported plans for SpaceX's IPO and notable personnel appointments at NASA, which contribute to a positive backdrop. However, despite these favorable factors, the balanced risk-reward ratio leads to a tempered investment stance in the near term. The analyst also points out that increased transparency and clarity regarding upcoming launches could pivot the stock's outlook to a more optimistic trajectory.
Technical Trends Underpinning Rocket Lab's Current Momentum
Rocket Lab's stock is demonstrating strong bullish patterns from both short and long-term perspectives. The price is trading approximately 18.8% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and about 57.5% above its 100-day SMA, underscoring sustained positive momentum.
Over the past year, the stock has recorded a remarkable gain of nearly 292%, positioning it closer to its 52-week peak than its trough. Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently stand at 71.99, which signals an overbought condition and suggests that the stock could experience a pullback should upward momentum diminish.
Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator maintains a position above its signal line, reinforcing the prevailing bullish sentiment. The coexistence of an overbought RSI and a positive MACD implies robust investor interest but cautions traders to be vigilant about potential corrections.
Price Levels and Market Sentiment
Market participants should note the critical resistance level set at $100.00, a threshold that, if decisively breached, could pave the way for further appreciation. Conversely, immediate support is identified near $90.00, providing a buffer zone to watch if downward pressure intensifies.
Upcoming Earnings and Financial Expectations
The market is now turning its focus toward Rocket Lab's forthcoming earnings report, scheduled for release on February 26. Analysts forecast an earnings per share (EPS) loss of 9 cents, representing a slight improvement from a loss of 10 cents in the previous year. Revenue projections are estimated at $178.29 million, reflecting substantial growth compared to $132.39 million recorded year-over-year.
Analyst Consensus and Activity Overview
On average, analysts maintain a Buy rating on Rocket Lab, with an aggregate price target of $56.15. Recent shifts in analyst positions include Morgan Stanley's notable upgrade to Overweight with a $105 price target, Keybanc's Sector Weight adjustment, and Needham's Buy rating uplift with a $90 target dated December 23, 2025.
Market Momentum and Fund Exposure
According to Benzinga Edge rankings, Rocket Lab scores an impressive 97.92 out of 100 in momentum, signaling exceptional performance relative to the broader market. This momentum often attracts traders seeking to leverage upward trends.
Additionally, Rocket Lab commands significant weighting in several aerospace- and defense-focused ETFs, including 5.66% in the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE:XAR), 4.81% in the First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE:MISL), and 7.62% in the ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (NASDAQ:ARKX). Such holdings mean that fluctuations in these funds’ inflows and outflows could materially impact Rocket Lab’s stock trading volume and price.
Recent Price Performance
Reflecting the overall bullish sentiment, Rocket Lab shares advanced by approximately 7.28% to trade around $97.37 during Friday's session, as per Benzinga Pro data. This robust price action underscores strong investor interest and positions the stock near critical resistance thresholds.
Summary of Key Considerations
Rocket Lab's current trading environment is marked by a tension between cautious valuation perspectives and compelling operational milestones, resulting in a complex risk-reward profile. While technical indicators and analyst upgrades suggest a favorable momentum backdrop, the proximity to overbought conditions warrants attention to potential volatility. The forthcoming earnings report will likely serve as a critical catalyst for price direction in the near term.