Shell PLC provided a detailed update on its expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 during a statement released on Wednesday. The energy company refined projections across its core business segments, ahead of the publication of complete financial results scheduled for February 5, 2026. This update included adjustments to production targets, operational utilization rates, and earnings forecasts, portraying a nuanced outlook for the quarter.
Upstream and Integrated Gas Segment Projections
In its recent guidance, Shell narrowed the expected production range for its Integrated Gas segment to between 930,000 and 970,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). This adjustment represents a tightening from the previously stated range of 920,000 to 980,000 boe/d. The Integrated Gas division is also forecasted to maintain trading and optimisation performance roughly in line with the third quarter of fiscal 2025.
Regarding liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations, Shell revised its forecast for LNG liquefaction volumes downward slightly, anticipating 7.5 to 7.9 million metric tons, compared to its earlier estimate of 7.4 to 8.0 million metric tons.
Within its Upstream business, Shell updated the production projection to between approximately 1.84 million and 1.94 million boe/d, tightening the range relative to the prior guidance of 1.77 million to 1.97 million boe/d. This indicates a more focused expectation around output levels for the quarter.
Refining and Chemical Business Adjustments
Shell’s refinery utilization forecast has been revised upward to a range of 93% to 97%, compared with the earlier guidance of 87% to 95%. This increase is accompanied by an improved expectation for refining margins, with the company anticipating $14 per barrel in the quarter, which is higher than the $11.6 per barrel margin experienced in the third quarter.
In the Chemicals and Products segment, the anticipated plant utilization rate has been updated slightly, with Shell estimating a range of 75% to 79%, adjusted from the prior guidance of 71% to 79%. The company expects adjusted earnings in this segment to fall below the break-even point during the fourth quarter, citing a significant decline in contributions from Trading and Optimisation activities.
Marketing Segment and Additional Operational Notes
Shell projects sales volumes in its Marketing division to be approximately 2.65 to 2.75 million barrels per day, narrowing the previously broader guidance range of 2.50 to 3.00 million barrels per day. The company anticipates that Marketing adjusted earnings will decline relative to the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024. This decline is attributed in part to a non-cash deferred tax adjustment connected to a joint venture.
Strategic Developments
Recent corporate developments include Shell's finalization of a joint venture agreement with Equinor ASA to combine their United Kingdom offshore oil and gas operations under a new entity titled Adura. This strategic move may have implications for operational efficiencies and regional market presence.
Furthermore, a subsidiary of Shell, Shell International Trading Middle East Limited FZE, recently signed a long-term agreement with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), extending over 15 years. This agreement could influence supply dynamics and trading activities over the duration of the deal.
Market Reaction
Following these updates, Shell's stock experienced a decline during premarket trading on Thursday, with shares dropping 2.75% to $69.56, reflecting investor sentiment in response to the revised outlook.