Sigma Lithium Corporation (NASDAQ:SGML) encountered a notable drop in share value Thursday, reacting to a more cautious evaluation from Bank of America Securities (BofA). The investment analyst team expressed concerns over continued operational bottlenecks and liquidity questions, which they argue eclipse the benefits arising from a recent surge in lithium prices.
Analyst Rock Hoffman from BofA adjusted the company’s rating from Neutral to Underperform, signaling reduced confidence in the company’s short-term financial performance. Simultaneously, Hoffman increased the price target from $11 to $13, reflecting some anticipation of improvement, though still tempered by the underlying challenges.
The analyst’s reservations stem largely from Sigma Lithium’s failure to resolve key operational issues and uncertainty around liquidity management. These factors are crucial in determining the company’s capacity to achieve meaningful production levels in the near future, which could affect its financial health and ability to capitalize on the favorable lithium market.
Hoffman pointed out that Sigma’s management has yet to provide clear updates regarding the resumption of mining activities or the reception of anticipated prepayment funds. These components are vital for easing existing concerns related to the company’s balance sheet. Without such disclosures, investors remain uncertain about the timeline for operational normalization and financial stability.
Despite a notable 158% increase in stock price since the November 14 earnings call, driven by strengthened lithium market dynamics, the analyst cautioned that the current stock valuation seems to overprice expectations of successful mining output. Hoffman noted that the company has made little headway in resolving the critical operational and liquidity issues that underlie production uncertainties.
Specifically, delays at Phase 1 (P1) of operations may cascade and push back the timeline for Phase 2 (P2), further restricting the speed at which Sigma Lithium can ramp up production to benefit from elevated lithium prices. The analyst emphasized that while lithium market fundamentals have improved due to disciplined production, lower ore recoveries, and solid demand from energy storage systems (ESS), Sigma cannot truly capitalize on these conditions without stable and consistent output.
Hoffman suggested that even if mining operations restart by mid-January, it is unlikely that the company will achieve substantial production volumes in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. This constrained outlook weighs heavily against the stock’s current valuation.
Revising financial projections, the analyst lowered fiscal 2026 concentrate sales estimates to 210 kilotonnes SC5, down from an earlier forecast of 298 kilotonnes. However, cost reductions anticipated in the first quarter, coupled with increased prices in the second and fourth quarters, and an estimated 190 kilotonnes in tailings sales, could help offset some volume shortfalls. These adjustments project an uplift in 2026 EBITDA to $97 million from a previous $85 million forecast.
Alongside sales and EBITDA revisions, earnings per share (EPS) estimates were also amended. The 2025 EPS forecast now reflects a loss of 15 cents, an improvement from an earlier projected loss of 21 cents. For 2026 and 2027, EPS estimates were adjusted to a loss of 51 cents (up from 46 cents) and 78 cents (up from 73 cents), respectively.
The share performance responded sharply to these developments, with Sigma Lithium’s stock declining 15.29% and trading around $13.26 at the time of reporting, according to market data. These dynamics illustrate the challenges the company faces in meeting production milestones amidst liquidity and operational uncertainties while navigating shifting market expectations.